A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening
Suppose that there is a probability density function for how bad things might get, but that the overall rate at which this probability density function slims down to approach zero in the tail is uncertain. The paper shows how a basic precautionary principle of tail fattening could then apply. The worse is the contemplated damage, the more should a decision maker consider the bad tail to be among the relatively fatter-tailed possibilities. A rough numerical example is applied to the uncertain tail distribution of climate sensitivity. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Volume (Year): 55 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263 |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Claude Henry & Marc Henry, 2002.
"Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle,"
- Claude Henry & Marc Henry, 2002. "Formalization and applications of the precautionary principles," Discussion Papers 0102-22, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Claude HENRY & Marc HENRY, 2002. "Formalization and Applications of the Precuationary Principle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2012. "Decision Theory Under Ambiguity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 234-270, 04.
- Weitzman, Martin L., 2009.
"On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change,"
3693423, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010.
"Ambiguity and Climate Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
16050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010. "Ambiguity and climate policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010. "Ambiguity and climate policy," GRI Working Papers 24, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2011. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 275-292, Summer.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:55:y:2013:i:2:p:159-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.