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The Importance of Communicating Uncertainties in Forecasts: Overestimating the Risks from Winter Storm Juno

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  • Robert L. Winkler

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  • Robert L. Winkler, 2015. "The Importance of Communicating Uncertainties in Forecasts: Overestimating the Risks from Winter Storm Juno," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 349-353, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:3:p:349-353
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jared LeClerc & Susan Joslyn, 2015. "The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather‐Related Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 385-395, March.
    2. Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 5-11, January.
    3. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
    4. Robert L. Winkler & Thomas S. Wallsten & Ronald G. Whitfield & Harvey M. Richmond & Stanley R. Hayes & Arlene S. Rosenbaum, 1995. "An Assessment of the Risk of Chronic Lung Injury Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 19-28, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandre Mornet & Thomas Opitz & Michel Luzi & Stéphane Loisel, 2016. "Wind Storm Risk Management," Working Papers hal-01299692, HAL.
    2. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.
    3. Simon French & Nikolaos Argyris & Stephanie M. Haywood & Matthew C. Hort & Jim Q. Smith, 2019. "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 9-16, January.

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