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Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2020. "Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 27702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Han, Zhao & Tan, Fei & Wu, Jieran, 2022. "Analytic policy function iteration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  3. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
  4. Ina Hajdini, 2022. "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 22-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Mar 2023.
  5. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
  6. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
  7. José-Elías Gallegos, 2023. "Inflation persistence, noisy information and the Phillips curve," Working Papers 2309, Banco de España.
  8. Foltas, Alexander, 2023. "Quantifying priorities in business cycle reports: Analysis of recurring textual patterns around peaks and troughs," Working Papers 44, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  9. Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
  10. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  11. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Salle, Isabelle, 2025. "Learning to be rational in the presence of news: A lab investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  12. Na, Seunghoon & Yoo, Donghoon, 2025. "Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  13. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  14. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
  15. Vladimir Asriyan & Alexandre Kohlhas, 2025. "The macroeconomics of data: Scale, product choice, and pricing in the information age," Economics Working Papers 1904, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  16. Tiziano Ropele & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 246-261, June.
  17. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-03351632, HAL.
  18. Salomé Fofana & Paula Patzelt & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," Discussion Papers 2418, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  19. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
  20. Shintani, Mototsugu & Ueda, Kozo, 2023. "Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  21. Metodij Hadzi‐Vaskov & Luca Antonio Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2023. "What drives economic growth forecast revisions?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1068-1092, August.
  22. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Matthew OBrien & Andrei Shleifer, 2024. "Long-Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 311-347.
  23. repec:cdl:econwp:qt0tn1s1hp is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 223-244, Summer.
  25. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 67, pages 1-25.
  26. Afsar, Atahan & Gallegos, José-Elías & Jaimes, Richard & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "A behavioral hybrid New Keynesian model: Quantifying the importance of belief formation frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  27. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Schwemmer, Alexander, 2023. "Monetary policy rules under bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 18/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  28. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2024. "Survey Expectations, Adaptive Learning and Inflation Dynamics," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp781, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  29. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation," Working Papers 22-21R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 27 Mar 2023.
  30. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  31. Oliver Pfäuti, 2025. "Inflation—Who Cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(5), pages 1211-1239, August.
  32. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_011 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
  34. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2024. "Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? The case of Argentina," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2572-2587, November.
  35. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
  36. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2025. "Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 274-309, January.
  37. Ricardo Reis, 2020. "Comment on "Imperfect Expectations: Theory and Evidence"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 99-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  39. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  40. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi & Sebastian Rast, 2025. "Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Working Paper Series WP 2025-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  41. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers hal-03468918, HAL.
  42. Jonathan J Adams, 2023. "Equilibrium Determinacy With Behavioral Expectations," Working Papers 001008, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
  43. Tianhao Wu, 2024. "Consumption with Imperfect Income Expectations," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(1), pages 12-30.
  44. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
  45. Bianchi-Vimercati, Riccardo & Eichenbaum, Martin & Guerreiro, Joao, 2024. "Fiscal stimulus with imperfect expectations: Spending vs. tax policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
  46. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.
  47. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  48. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
  49. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
  50. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
  51. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
  52. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
  53. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
  54. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
  55. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Mitman, Kurt & Broer, Tobias & Kohlhas, Alexandre & Schlafmann, Kathrin, 2021. "Information and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Pascal Kieren & Christian König-Kersting & Robert Schmidt & Stefan Trautmann & Franziska Heinicke, 2023. "First-Order and Higher-Order Inflation Expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms," Working Papers 2023-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  58. Huo, Zhen & Pedroni, Marcelo, 2023. "Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.
  59. Platonov, Konstantin, 2024. "Confidence spillovers, financial contagion, and stagnation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  60. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  61. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  62. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2024. "Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2427, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  63. Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
  64. Stéphane Dupraz & Magali Marx, 2023. "Anchoring Boundedly Rational Expectations," Working papers 936, Banque de France.
  65. Jonathan J Adams, 2024. "Optimal Policy Without Rational Expectations: A Sufficient Statistic Solution," Working Papers 001011, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
  66. Erwan Gautier & Frédérique Savignac & Olivier Coibion, 2025. "Firms' Inflation and Wage Expectations during the Inflation Surge," NBER Working Papers 33799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  68. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
  69. repec:bge:wpaper:1486 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
  71. Anthony Brassil & Yahdullah Haidari & Jonathan Hambur & Gulnara Nolan & Callum Ryan, 2024. "How Do Households Form Inflation and Wage Expectations?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  72. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
  73. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
  74. Görkem Ataman & Serpil Kahraman, 2022. "Comparing Decision Trees and Association Rules for Stock Market Expectations in BIST100 and BIST30," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(3), pages 459-475, September.
  75. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
  76. Thierry U. Kame Babilla, 2024. "Bank‐lending channel of monetary policy transmission in WAEMU: An estimated DSGE model approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1277-1300, April.
  77. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2024. "Inflation as a 'bad', heuristics and aggregate shocks: New evidence on expectation formation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  78. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Alessio Volpicella & Bo Yang, 2022. "The Use and Mis-Use of SVARs for Validating DSGE Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0522, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  79. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Zhongxi Zheng, 2025. "Endogenous Persistence at the Effective Lower Bound," Papers 2501.06473, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
  80. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
  81. Ji, Yangyang, 2022. "Can Discounting Alone Resolve the Forward Guidance Puzzle?," MPRA Paper 115353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  82. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
  83. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
  84. Anja Sebbesen & Birgit Meyer, 2025. "I Think What You Think: Trade Fairs and the Exchange of Firms' Beliefs," WIFO Working Papers 704, WIFO.
  85. Goldstein, Nathan & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 2021. "Do forecasters really care about consensus?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  86. Kenneth Eva & Fabian Winkler, 2023. "A Comprehensive Empirical Evaluation of Biases in Expectation Formation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-042, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  87. Bassanin, Marzio & Faia, Ester & Patella, Valeria, 2021. "Ambiguity attitudes and the leverage cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  88. Han, Leyla Jianyu, 2025. "Announcements, expectations, and stock returns with asymmetric information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  89. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
  90. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2024. "Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions? The case of inflation in Argentina," Working Papers 300, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  91. Adam, Klaus & Pfäuti, Oliver & Reinelt, Timo, 2025. "Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates, and the optimal inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  92. Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
  93. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Shihan Xie, 2025. "Overconfidence in Private Information Explains Biases in Professional Forecasts," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_617, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  94. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1995 is not listed on IDEAS
  95. Alexandre Kohlhas & Vladimir Asriyan, 2025. "The Macroeconomics of Data: Scale, Product Choice, and Pricing in the Information Age," Economics Series Working Papers 1073, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  96. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  97. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
  98. Leland Bybee, 2023. "Surveying Generative AI's Economic Expectations," Papers 2305.02823, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  99. Roman Frydman & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2022. "Muth's Hypothesis Under Knightian Uncertainty: A Novel Account of Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Series inetwp194, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  100. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
  101. Nathan Goldstein & Ohad Raveh, 2024. "Looking up the sky: unidentified aerial phenomena and macroeconomic attention," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
  102. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
  103. Marco Bottone & Alex Tagliabracci & Giordano Zevi, 2021. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  104. Kieren, Pascal & König-Kersting, Christian & Schmidt, Robert J. & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Theurich, Franziska, 2024. "First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about households and firms," Discussion Papers 18/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  105. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  106. Han, Zhao, 2024. "Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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