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Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks

Author

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  • George-Marios Angeletos
  • Chen Lian

Abstract

We revisit the question of why shifts in aggregate demand drive business cycles. Our theory combines intertemporal substitution in production with rational confusion, or bounded rationality, in consumption and investment. The first element allows aggregate supply to respond to shifts in aggregate demand without nominal rigidity. The second introduces a “confidence multiplier,” that is, a positive feedback loop between real economic activity, consumer expectations of permanent income, and investor expectations of returns. This mechanism amplifies the business-cycle fluctuations triggered by demand shocks (but not necessarily those triggered by supply shocks); it helps investment to comove with consumption; and it allows front-loaded fiscal stimuli to crowd in private spending.

Suggested Citation

  • George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2022. "Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1085-1119.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:89:y:2022:i:3:p:1085-1119.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdab064
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    Cited by:

    1. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Development Of Composite Indicators Of Cyclical Response In Business Surveys Considering The Specifics Of The ‘Covid-19 Economy’," HSE Working papers WP BRP 121/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Xu, Xiangyun & Li, Xing & Meng, Jie & Hu, Xueqi & Ge, Yingfan, 2024. "The impact of the tail risk of demand on corporate investment: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Adams, Jonathan J., 2023. "Moderating noise-driven macroeconomic fluctuations under dispersed information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Yuemei Ji, 2023. "Shock Therapy in Transition Countries: A Behavioral Macroeconomic Approach," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 483-510, September.
    6. Piga, Claudio A. & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Alderighi, Marco, 2025. "Demand-shock characteristics and pricing behavior: A natural experiment from UEFA Euro 2016," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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