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Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy

Author

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  • Ropele, Tiziano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Using Italian data that includes both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that as disagreement increases, so does misallocation. In times of low inflation, the aggregate TFP loss of the dispersed expectations-induced misallocation is moderate, but we argue that it likely becomes quite significant in times of high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ropele, Tiziano & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 16106, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Fiorella De Fiore & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Giacomo Mangiante, 2025. "The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through of input prices to firms' expectations and decisions," BIS Working Papers 1305, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Diego Marino Fages, 2024. "Motivated Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Discussion Papers 2024-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    4. repec:osf:socarx:nxshd_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Meyer, Brent H. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2025. "Unit cost expectations: Firms’ perspectives on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2025. "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 33858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kabir, Poorya & Tan, Eugene & Vardishvili, Ia, 2025. "Quantifying the allocative efficiency of capital: The role of capital utilization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Sha, Yezhou & Wu, Xi, 2025. "Black market prices as inflation predictor: Evidence from China’s hyperinflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Jonas Dovern & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "The Causal Effects of Trump's Reelection on Business Expectations of German Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 12266, CESifo.
    11. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2025. "Inflation expectations and price-setting decisions: insights from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1507, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Masuda, Kazuto, 2024. "The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress," SocArXiv nxshd, Center for Open Science.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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