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Hierarchical Markov Normal Mixture Models with Applications to Financial Asset Returns

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  1. Aye, Goodness & Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kim, Won Joong, 2015. "Forecasting the price of gold using dynamic model averaging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 257-266.
  2. Grant, Angelia L. & Chan, Joshua C.C., 2017. "Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 114-121.
  3. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2011. "Bayesian inference in a time varying cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 210-220.
  4. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Almohaimeed, Bader & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2020. "Forecasting transaction counts with integer-valued GARCH models," MPRA Paper 101779, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2020.
  5. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  6. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
  7. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
  8. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011. "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
  9. David Gunawan & William Griffths & Anatasios Panagiotelis and Duangkamon Chotikapanich, 2017. "Bayesian Weighted Inference from Surveys "Abstract: Data from large surveys are often supplemented with sampling weights that are designed to reflect unequal probabilities of response and selecti," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2030, The University of Melbourne.
  10. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
  11. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
  12. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  13. Xianguo HUANG & Roberto LEON-GONZALEZ & Somrasri YUPHO, 2013. "Financial Integration from a Time-Varying Cointegration Perspective," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1473-1487.
  14. Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Bayesian forecasting with the structural damped trend model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  15. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax‐Rate Uncertainty," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(4), pages 438-468, November.
  16. Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kim, Won Joong & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D., 2014. "Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals, financial stress and economic uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 170-189.
  17. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
  18. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
  19. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  20. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
  21. Rodney W. Strachan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2013. "Evidence On Features Of A Dsge Business Cycle Model From Bayesian Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 385-402, February.
  22. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
  23. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
  24. Leopoldo Catania & Roberto Di Mari & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Dynamic discrete mixtures for high frequency prices," Discussion Papers 19/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  25. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
  26. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  27. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Modelling breaks and clusters in the steady states of macroeconomic variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 186-193.
  28. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
  29. Bernardi, Mauro & Maruotti, Antonello & Petrella, Lea, 2017. "Multiple risk measures for multivariate dynamic heavy–tailed models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-32.
  30. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
  31. Hyeyoen Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rate from Combination Taylor Rule Fundamental," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 81-92, September.
  32. Jushan Bai & Peng Wang, 2011. "Conditional Markov chain and its application in economic time series analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 715-734, August.
  33. Del Boca, Alessandra & Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco & Trecroci, Carmine, 2010. "The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 182-197, August.
  34. Tsionas, Mike & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2023. "Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for frontier efficiency analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
  35. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque & Madison Terrell, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2022-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  36. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
  37. Amedeo Fossati & Rosella Levaggi, 2008. "Delay is not the answer: waiting time in health care & income redistribution," Working Papers 0801, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  38. Francesco Giancaterini & Alain Hecq & Claudio Morana, 2022. "Is Climate Change Time-Reversible?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, December.
  39. Pelenis, Justinas, 2014. "Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 624-638.
  40. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  41. Alessandro Fedele & Raffaele Miniaci, 2010. "Do Social Enterprises Finance Their Investments Differently from For-profit Firms? The Case of Social Residential Services in Italy," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 174-189, October.
  42. Catania, Leopoldo & Di Mari, Roberto, 2021. "Hierarchical Markov-switching models for multivariate integer-valued time-series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 118-137.
  43. d’Addona, Stefano & Khanom, Najrin, 2022. "Estimating tail-risk using semiparametric conditional variance with an application to meme stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 241-260.
  44. Jianxi Su & Edward Furman, 2016. "Multiple risk factor dependence structures: Distributional properties," Papers 1607.04739, arXiv.org.
  45. Byrne, Joseph & Fu, Rong, 2016. "Stock Return Prediction with Fully Flexible Models and Coefficients," MPRA Paper 75366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Holzmann, Hajo & Schwaiger, Florian, 2016. "Testing for the number of states in hidden Markov models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 318-330.
  47. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2307-2318, September.
  48. Mauro Bernardi & Lea Petrella, 2015. "Interconnected Risk Contributions: A Heavy-Tail Approach to Analyze U.S. Financial Sectors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, April.
  49. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  50. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  51. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  52. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  53. Aijun Yang & Ju Xiang & Lianjie Shu & Hongqiang Yang, 2018. "Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection with Correlation Prior for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variable using Highly Correlated Predictors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 323-338, February.
  54. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  55. Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio, 2013. "Money Growth and Inflation: evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201304, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  56. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
  57. Omokolade Akinsomi & Goodness C. Aye & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Real estate returns predictability revisited: novel evidence from the US REITs market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1165-1190, November.
  58. Mike Tsionas & Christopher F. Parmeter & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2021. "Bridging the Divide? Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for Frontier Efficiency Analysis," CEPA Working Papers Series WP082021, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  59. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2020. "On an integer-valued stochastic intensity model for time series of counts," MPRA Paper 105406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Dong, Xiyong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "What global economic factors drive emerging Asian stock market returns? Evidence from a dynamic model averaging approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 204-215.
  61. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013. "Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.
  62. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
  63. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  64. Pelenis, Justinas, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Regression," Economics Series 285, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  65. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
  66. Martin Meier & Enrico Minelli & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2014. "Competitive markets with private information on both sides," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(2), pages 257-280, February.
  67. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.
  68. Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Optimal combinations of stochastic frontier and data envelopment analysis models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 790-800.
  69. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2009. "Decentralized provision of merit and impure public goods," Working Papers 0909, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  70. Bisin, A. & Geanakoplos, J.D. & Gottardi, P. & Minelli, E. & Polemarchakis, H., 2011. "Markets and contracts," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 279-288.
  71. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2674, CESifo.
  72. Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane M. & Schmidt, Vincent A., 2012. "Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 174-177.
  73. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2014. "A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 22-44.
  74. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sang-Kuck Chung, 2011. "A Long Memory Model with Normal Mixture GARCH," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 517-539, November.
  75. Jan Prüser, 2021. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 481-499, April.
  76. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2023. "Exact Likelihood for Inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Paper series 23-11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  77. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
  78. Xiong, Yingge & Tobias, Justin L. & Mannering, Fred L., 2014. "The analysis of vehicle crash injury-severity data: A Markov switching approach with road-segment heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 109-128.
  79. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  80. Alessandro Fedele & Francesco Liucci & Andrea Mantovani, 2009. "Credit availability in the crisis: the European investment bank group," Working Papers 0913, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  81. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
  82. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
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  84. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-470 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.
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