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Forecasting transaction counts with integer-valued GARCH models

Author

Listed:
  • Aknouche, Abdelhakim
  • Almohaimeed, Bader
  • Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos

Abstract

Using numerous transaction data on the number of stock trades, we conduct a forecasting exercise with INGARCH models, governed by various conditional distributions. The model parameters are estimated with efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, while forecast evaluation is done by calculating point and density forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Almohaimeed, Bader & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2020. "Forecasting transaction counts with integer-valued GARCH models," MPRA Paper 101779, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101779
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101779/1/MPRA_paper_101779.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Ali Ahmad & Christian Francq, 2016. "Poisson QMLE of Count Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 291-314, May.
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    6. Abdelhakim Aknouche & Sara Bendjeddou & Nassim Touche, 2018. "Negative Binomial Quasi†Likelihood Inference for General Integer†Valued Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 192-211, March.
    7. Doukhan, Paul & Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2012. "On weak dependence conditions for Poisson autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(5), pages 942-948.
    8. Heinen, Andreas, 2003. "Modelling Time Series Count Data: An Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Model," MPRA Paper 8113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tina Hviid Rydberg & Neil Shephard, 2000. "BIN Models for Trade-by-Trade Data. Modelling the Number of Trades in a Fixed Interval of Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0740, Econometric Society.
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    11. HEINEN, Andreas & RENGIFO, Erick, 2003. "Multivariate modelling of time series count data: an autoregressive conditional Poisson model," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Fukang Zhu, 2011. "A negative binomial integer‐valued GARCH model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 54-67, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Count time series; INGARCH models; MCMC; Forecasting comparison;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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