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Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Marco Bade & Hans Hirth, 2025. "How underinvestment reduces underpricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1689-1706, April.
  2. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi & Rooij, Maarten van, 2021. "Heterogeneous wealth effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  3. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
  4. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2026. "A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  5. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German reunification," IMFS Working Paper Series 129, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  6. Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Lucia Foster & Scott Ohlmacher & Itay Saporta-Eksten, 2022. "Investment and Subjective Uncertainty," Working Papers 22-52, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Emanuele Ciani & Adeline Delavande & Ben Etheridge & Marco Francesconi, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 98-129.
  8. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
  9. Fernando Borraz & Laura Zacheo, 2018. "Inattention, Disagreement and Internal (In)Consistency of Inflation Forecasts," Documentos de trabajo 2018007, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  10. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2021. "Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1481-1522, May.
  11. Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2022. "Informative social interactions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 246-263.
  12. Jonas Dovern & Alexander Glas & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "Testing for differences in survey‐based density expectations: A compositional data approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1104-1122, September.
  13. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Expectations, Price Fluctuations and Lorenz Attractor," MPRA Paper 89105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  16. Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust identification of investor beliefs," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 33130-33140, December.
  17. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  18. Chiara Binelli & Matthew Loveless, 2025. "Environmental actions, support for policy, and information’s provision: experimental evidence from the US," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-20, May.
  19. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
  20. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul & Schaffner, Markus & Torgler, Benno, 2018. "Expectation formation in an evolving game of uncertainty: New experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 379-405.
  21. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
  22. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
  23. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2020. "Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 203-235, March.
  24. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
  25. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
  26. John R. Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 1975-2049, August.
  27. Ignacio Belloc & Jos'e Alberto Molina, 2026. "Households with insufficient liquid assets: Consumption responses to income changes," Papers 2607.15363, arXiv.org.
  28. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 102767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & van Rooij, Maarten & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim, 2022. "Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 213-231.
  30. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2022. "Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 22079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  31. Iliopulos, Eleni & Perego, Erica & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2021. "International business cycles: Information matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 19-34.
  32. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  34. Christian Stoltenberg & Arne Uhlendorff, 2022. "Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-049/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  35. Christoph K. Becker & Peter Duersch & Thomas A. Eife, 2026. "Measuring inflation expectations: How the response scale shapes density forecasts," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), pages 895-937, July.
  36. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  37. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Wealth Shocks and MPC Heterogeneity," CSEF Working Papers 531, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  38. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202226, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  40. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "Household expectations and dissent among policymakers," IMFS Working Paper Series 169, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  41. Marco Bottone, 2025. "Comparing survey measures of firms’ expectations and uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 393-430, July.
  42. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Why Economic Theories and Policies Fail? Unnoticed Variables and Overlooked Economics," MPRA Paper 114187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco & Lopes, Paula, 2025. "Evidence on expectations of household finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  44. Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Annarita Colasante & Alba Ruiz-Buforn, 2024. "The effect of time-varying fundamentals in learning-to-forecast experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(4), pages 619-647, October.
  45. Sorić, Petar & Lolić, Ivana & Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2019. "Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 64-74.
  46. Yusuke Aoki & Joon Suk Park & Yuya Takada & Koji Takahashi, 2025. "Expecting job replacement by GenAI: effects on workers' economic outlook and behavior," BIS Working Papers 1269, Bank for International Settlements.
  47. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," IZA Discussion Papers 16426, IZA Network @ LISER.
  48. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2024. "SeaTE: Subjective Ex Ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 278-317, April.
  49. Fezzi, Carlo & Menapace, Luisa & Raffaelli, Roberta, 2021. "Estimating risk preferences integrating insurance choices with subjective beliefs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  50. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Classical Option Pricing and Some Steps Further," MPRA Paper 99918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sebastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 19239, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  53. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2026. "Inflation expectations and a conservative central banker: Evidence from a natural experiment," IMFS Working Paper Series 234, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  54. Pavlova, Lora, 2025. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
  55. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Theoretical Economics and the Second-Order Economic Theory. What is it?," Papers 2112.04566, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  56. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory III. Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 94053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  58. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
  59. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan Simester, 2022. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3191-3247, December.
  60. Cukierman, Alex & Lustenberger, Thomas, 2020. "Uncertainty and dispersion in professional interest rate forecasts: International evidence and theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 15039, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  61. Crossley, Thomas F. & Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  62. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023. "Local information and firm expectations about aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
  63. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2025. "Household expectations and dissent among policymakers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  64. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
  65. repec:ces:ceswps:_11848 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  67. Ori Heffetz & Guy Ishai, 2021. "Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  69. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2025. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(3), pages 1375-1437.
  70. Rachel Avram & Eric J. Koepcke & Alaa Moussawi & Melissa Nu~nez, 2024. "Do Cure Violence Programs Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from New York City," Papers 2406.02459, arXiv.org.
  71. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  72. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Econophysics of Asset Price, Return and Multiple Expectations," MPRA Paper 91587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  73. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.
  74. Poledna, Sebastian & Miess, Michael Gregor & Hommes, Cars & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Economic forecasting with an agent-based model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  75. Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  76. Francesco Andreoli & Claudine Kirsch & Eugenio Peluso & Vincenzo Prete, 2024. "The subjective treatment effects of COVID-19 on child well-being: evidence from Luxembourg," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 71(3), pages 575-596, September.
  77. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2021. "Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  78. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
  79. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  80. Chiara Binelli, 2019. "Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 201-231, August.
  81. Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 160, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  82. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 148-161, March.
  83. Giuseppe Rose & Desiré De Luca, 2024. "Health Concerns And Consumption Expectations During Covid-19: Evidence From A Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design," Working Papers 202401, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
  84. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Economic Policy - the Forth Dimension of the Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 112685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  85. Madeira, Carlos, 2020. "Learning your own ability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  86. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay C. Lim, 2023. "Retail Investor Trading Intentions: New Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(327), pages 512-535, December.
  87. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 93269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  88. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay Lim, 2021. "Retail investor expectations and trading preferences," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  89. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Methods of Economic Theory: Variables, Transactions and Expectations as Functions of Risks," MPRA Paper 95628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  90. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
  91. Scott R. Baker & Tucker S. McElroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2020. "Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 287-303, May.
  92. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2022. "Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 304-326.
  93. Utkansh Adlakha & Sparsh Chawla & Shahab Saquib Sohail & Md. Tabrez Nafis & Dag Øivind Madsen & Gunjan Ansari, 2026. "Public sentiment and economic uncertainty: an exploratory analysis of Twitter discourse on the anticipated 2023 recession," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
  94. Irina A. Beloglazova & Aleksey A. Korikov & Konstantin P. Yurchenko, 2025. "Inflation expectations and perceptions: Experimental evaluations and opportunities for central banks’ communication policy," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 50-68, April.
  95. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
  96. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2019. "Firms' Subjective Uncertainty and Forecast Errors," Discussion papers 19055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  97. Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero, 2024. "Consumption and income expectations during Covid-19," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 95-116, March.
  98. Zarifhonarvar, Ali, 2026. "Generating inflation expectations with large language models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  99. Dovern, Jonas, 2024. "Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 113-123.
  100. Hanna Freudenreich & Sindu W. Kebede, 2022. "Experience of shocks, household wealth and expectation formation: Evidence from smallholder farmers in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 756-774, September.
  101. John Ameriks & Gábor Kézdi & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 633-646, July.
  102. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
  103. Maxime Phillot & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2024. "Order Matters: An Experimental Study on How Question Ordering Affects Survey-Based Inflation Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(3), pages 63-114, July.
  104. João F. Cocco & Francisco Gomes & Paula Lopes, 2025. "Evidence on Expectations of Household Finances," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(11), pages 9548-9568, November.
  105. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2018. "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership," NBER Working Papers 25090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  106. Li, Lin & Liu, Kunyu & Li, Guoping, 2024. "What can analyst forecasts tell us about imperfect information?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1059-1073.
  107. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2022. "Firms' Knightian Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 22089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  108. Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Lucia Foster & Scott Ohlmacher & Itay Saporta‐Eksten, 2024. "2020 Klein Lecture—Investment and Subjective Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1591-1606, November.
  109. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  110. Mateo Velásquez-Giraldo, 2024. "Life-Cycle Portfolio Choices and Heterogeneous Stock Market Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  111. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277657, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  112. Sarah Goldman & Shouyi Zhang, 2022. "Quantitative Easing, Households' Savings and Growth: A Luxembourgish Case Study," Post-Print hal-04080189, HAL.
  113. Gerotto, Luca & Paradiso, Antonio & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2025. "A tale of inattentiveness and the loss function: A model for household-level macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  114. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
  115. Chen, Xiaohong & Hansen, Lars Peter & Hansen, Peter G., 2024. "Robust inference for moment condition models without rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 243(1).
  116. Firano Zakaria & Filali Adib Fatine, 2025. "Health Accelerator and Financial Frictions in Macroeconomic Modelling," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(1), pages 21582440251, March.
  117. Adam, Klaus & Matveev, Dmitry & Nagel, Stefan, 2021. "Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 723-740.
  118. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2021. "Uncertainty of Firms' Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 21042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  119. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
  120. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  121. Zhao, Yongchen, 2023. "Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1713-1735.
  122. Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Does Experience Shape Subjective Expectations?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 181, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  123. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey," Working Papers 15, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  124. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Financial Variables, Market Transactions, and Expectations as Functions of Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-27, November.
  125. Stefano Fasani & Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni & Valeria Patella & Lorenza Rossi, 2025. "Belief Distortions and Uncertainty About Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 12209, CESifo.
  126. Sias, Richard & Starks, Laura T. & Turtle, H.J., 2023. "The negativity bias and perceived return distributions: Evidence from a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 627-657.
  127. Marcelo Pedroni & Swapnil Singh & Christian Stoltenberg, 2022. "Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence from Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-032/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  128. Bańkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Dias Da Silva, António & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny,, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
  129. Lars Peter Hansen, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 479-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  130. Gonzalez-Fernandez, Pedro & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Meissner, Thomas, 2025. "Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
  131. Ignazio Visco & Giordano Zevi, 2020. "Bounded rationality and expectations in economics," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 575, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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