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A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities

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Cited by:

  1. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
  2. Eduardo Roca & Victor Wong, 2008. "An analysis of the sensitivity of Australian superannuation funds to market movements: a Markov regime switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 583-597.
  3. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald & Schlichter, Felix, 2009. "Electricity portfolio management: Optimal peak/off-peak allocations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 169-174, January.
  4. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The time-varying and asymmetric dependence between crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from the Mixture copula-based ARJI–GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2298-2309.
  5. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "The Number Of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification And Economic Value," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1-25.
  6. Lux, Thomas & Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility and value-at-risk: Evidence from historical and recent data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 117-133.
  7. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
  8. Almansour, Abdullah, 2016. "Convenience yield in commodity price modeling: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 238-247.
  9. Urom, Christian & Onwuka, Kevin O. & Uma, Kalu E. & Yuni, Denis N., 2020. "Regime dependent effects and cyclical volatility spillover between crude oil price movements and stock returns," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 10-29.
  10. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  11. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  12. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting & He, Ling-Yun & Ripple, Ronald, 2019. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil market: Can the regime switching GARCH model beat the single-regime GARCH models?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 302-317.
  13. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
  14. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2016. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A Markov switching multifractal volatility approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-9.
  15. Katarzyna Kuziak & Joanna Górka, 2023. "Dependence Analysis for the Energy Sector Based on Energy ETFs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-30, January.
  16. Peter Akioyamen & Yi Zhou Tang & Hussien Hussien, 2021. "A Hybrid Learning Approach to Detecting Regime Switches in Financial Markets," Papers 2108.05801, arXiv.org.
  17. Dean Leistikow & Ren-Raw Chen, 2019. "Carry Cost Rate Regimes and Futures Hedge Ratio Variation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, May.
  18. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2022. "Regime-switching angular correlation diversification," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  19. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 430-454.
  20. François, Pascal & Gauthier, Geneviève & Godin, Frédéric, 2014. "Optimal hedging when the underlying asset follows a regime-switching Markov process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 312-322.
  21. Dark, Jonathan, 2015. "Futures hedging with Markov switching vector error correction FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 269-285.
  22. Dean Leistikow & Ren-Raw Chen & Yuewu Xu, 2022. "Spot asset carry cost rates and futures hedge ratios," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1741-1779, May.
  23. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2018. "The asymmetric return-volatility relationship of commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 378-387.
  24. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap Keung & Wu, Feng & Sculli, Domenic & Shi, Yuan, 2012. "A multi-stage financial hedging approach for the procurement of manufacturing materials," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 424-431.
  25. Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2016. "Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-15.
  26. Lee, Taehyun & Moutzouris, Ioannis C & Papapostolou, Nikos C & Fatouh, Mahmoud, 2023. "Foreign exchange hedging using regime-switching models: the case of pound sterling," Bank of England working papers 1042, Bank of England.
  27. Giampietro, Marta & Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2018. "Estimating stochastic discount factor models with hidden regimes: Applications to commodity pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 685-702.
  28. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
  29. Marta Giampietro & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2015. "Can No-Arbitrage SDF Models with Regime Shifts Explain the Correlations Between Commodity, Stock, and Bond Returns?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1619, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  30. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gençay, 2016. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1534-1560, December.
  31. Pascal François & Geneviève Gauthier & Frédéric Godin, 2012. "Optimal Hedging when the Underlying Asset Follows a Regime-switching Markov Process," Cahiers de recherche 1234, CIRPEE.
  32. Luo, Rui & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2016. "Corporate Hedging In Incomplete Markets: A Solution Under Price Transmission," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235444, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  33. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
  35. Chappell, Daniel, 2018. "Regime heteroskedasticity in Bitcoin: A comparison of Markov switching models," MPRA Paper 90682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Lu, Junli & Shen, Xilin, 2023. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A trade-off between risk and return," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  37. Aleksander Olstad & George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis, 2021. "Oil and currency volatilities: Co‐movements and hedging opportunities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2351-2374, April.
  38. Stavros Degiannakis & Christos Floros & Enrique Salvador & Dimitrios Vougas, 2022. "On the stationarity of futures hedge ratios," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2281-2303, July.
  39. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Osuntuyi, Anthony, 2018. "Markov switching GARCH models for Bayesian hedging on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 545-562.
  40. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
  41. Tanattrin Bunnag, 2015. "Hedging Petroleum Futures with Multivariate GARCH Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 105-120.
  42. Chan, Kam Fong & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Brooks, Robert & Gray, Stephen, 2011. "Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1415-1426, June.
  43. Park, Jin Suk & Shi, Yukun, 2017. "Hedging and speculative pressures and the transition of the spot-futures relationship in energy and metal markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 176-191.
  44. Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2007. "A bivariate Markov regime switching GARCH approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1253-1265.
  45. Kunlapath Sukcharoen & Hankyeung Choi & David J. Leatham, 2015. "Optimal gasoline hedging strategies using futures contracts and exchange-traded funds," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(32), pages 3482-3498, July.
  46. Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha & Jing Wu, 2016. "Quantile Estimation of Optimal Hedge Ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 194-214, February.
  47. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  48. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2021. "Cross-commodity hedging for illiquid futures: Evidence from China's base metal futures market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  49. Emmanuel Hache & Anthony Paris, 2018. "Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedging Strategy for the US Ethanol Market," Working Papers hal-04141799, HAL.
  50. Su, EnDer, 2017. "Stock index hedging using a trend and volatility regime-switching model involving hedging cost," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 233-254.
  51. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
  52. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
  53. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Tsang, Wei-Lun, 2011. "Cross hedging single stock with American Depositary Receipt and stock index futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 146-157, September.
  54. Zhou, Jian, 2016. "Hedging performance of REIT index futures: A comparison of alternative hedge ratio estimation methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 690-698.
  55. Laporta, Alessandro G. & Merlo, Luca & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Selection of Value at Risk Models for Energy Commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 628-643.
  56. Dean Leistikow & Yi Tang & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Dynamic Conditional Bias-Adjusted Carry Cost Rate Futures Hedge Ratios," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
  57. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Modelling the volatility of TOCOM energy futures: A regime switching realised volatility approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  58. Carol Alexander & Andreza Barbosa, 2006. "Minimum Variance Hedging and Stock Index Market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2006-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Sep 2006.
  59. Olson, Eric & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What is a better cross-hedge for energy: Equities or other commodities?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  60. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Dynamic frequency relationships and volatility spillovers in natural gas, crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, and heating oil markets: Implications for portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  61. Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
  62. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
  63. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "Regime switching in stock index and futures markets: a note on the NIKKEI evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 394-399.
  64. Lin, Ling & Zhou, Zhongbao & Liu, Qing & Jiang, Yong, 2019. "Risk transmission between natural gas market and stock markets: portfolio and hedging strategy analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 245-254.
  65. Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
  66. Gerrit Reher & Bernd Wilfling, 2016. "A nesting framework for Markov-switching GARCH modelling with an application to the German stock market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 411-426, March.
  67. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2011. "Hedging vs. speculative pressures on commodity futures returns," MPRA Paper 28229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
  69. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Liangchen Li & Mike Ludkovski, 2021. "An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 631-669, December.
  70. Aragó, Vicent & Salvador, Enrique, 2011. "Sudden changes in variance and time varying hedge ratios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 393-403, December.
  71. Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Wai-Sum Chan & Rui Zhou, 2017. "Semicoherent Multipopulation Mortality Modeling: The Impact on Longevity Risk Securitization," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 1025-1065, September.
  72. Gonzato, Luca & Sgarra, Carlo, 2021. "Self-exciting jumps in the oil market: Bayesian estimation and dynamic hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  73. Yousefi, Hamed & Najand, Mohammad, 2022. "Geographical diversification using ETFs: Multinational evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  74. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Mᵃ Isabel Martínez-Torre-Enciso, 2021. "Enhancing Portfolio Performance and VIX Futures Trading Timing with Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, January.
  75. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & José Álvarez-García, 2022. "Using Markov-Switching Models in US Stocks Optimal Portfolio Selection in a Black–Litterman Context (Part 1)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-28, April.
  76. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  77. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Dora Aguilasocho-Montoya & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2020. "A Two-Regime Markov-Switching GARCH Active Trading Algorithm for Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar Futures," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-19, June.
  78. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Zekokh, Timur, 2019. "Modelling volatility of cryptocurrencies using Markov-Switching GARCH models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 143-155.
  79. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2019. "A Test of Using Markov-Switching GARCH Models in Oil and Natural Gas Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, December.
  80. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2014. "Hedging crude oil using refined product: A regime switching asymmetric DCC approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 472-484.
  81. Li, Sufang & Zhang, Hu & Yuan, Di, 2019. "Investor attention and crude oil prices: Evidence from nonlinear Granger causality tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  82. Arunanondchai, Panit & Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David J., 2020. "Dealing with tail risk in energy commodity markets: Futures contracts versus exchange-traded funds," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  83. Fu, Junhui & Zhang, Wei-Guo & Yao, Zheng & Zhang, Xili, 2012. "Hedging the portfolio of raw materials and the commodity under the mark-to-market risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1070-1075.
  84. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "A regime-switching real-time copula GARCH model for optimal futures hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  85. Ismael Pérez-Franco & Esteban Otto Thomasz & Gonzalo Rondinone & Agustín García-García, 2022. "Feed price risk management for sheep production in Spain: a composite future cross-hedging strategy," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 137-163, June.
  86. Mehrdoust, Farshid & Noorani, Idin & Kanniainen, Juho, 2024. "Valuation of option price in commodity markets described by a Markov-switching model: A case study of WTI crude oil market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 228-269.
  87. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Tae, Hyeon-Wuk, 2018. "Option pricing under regime switching: Integration over simplexes method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 301-312.
  88. Cheong, Chin Wen, 2009. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2346-2355, June.
  89. Wang, Yudong & Geng, Qianjie & Meng, Fanyi, 2019. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A comparison between minimum-variance and minimum-risk frameworks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 815-826.
  90. Lv, Xiaodong & Shan, Xian, 2013. "Modeling natural gas market volatility using GARCH with different distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5685-5699.
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  92. Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2015. "Evaluation of realized multi-power variations in minimum variance hedging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 672-679.
  93. Mohamed Osman, 2015. "Dynamic Asymmetries in the Electric Consumption of the GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 461-467.
  94. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Lin, Jia-Juan, 2019. "Can the VAR model outperform MRS model for asset allocation in commodity market under different risk preferences of investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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  100. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  101. Donald Lien & Hsiang‐Tai Lee & Her‐Jiun Sheu, 2018. "Hedging systematic risk in the commodity market with a regime‐switching multivariate rotated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1514-1532, December.
  102. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2023. "Optimal portfolio diversification with a multi-chain regime-switching spillover GARCH model," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  103. Nademi, Arash & Nademi, Younes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil prices by a semiparametric Markov switching model: OPEC, WTI, and Brent cases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 757-766.
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  105. Wen-Chung Hsu & Hsiang-Tai Lee, 2018. "Cross Hedging Stock Sector Risk with Index Futures by Considering the Global Equity Systematic Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, April.
  106. Hsiang‐Tai Lee, 2022. "A Markov regime‐switching Cholesky GARCH model for directly estimating the dynamic of optimal hedge ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 389-412, March.
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  108. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
  109. Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.
  110. Chng, Michael T., 2009. "Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 958-970, May.
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