IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v73y2021ics0301420721001860.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic frequency relationships and volatility spillovers in natural gas, crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, and heating oil markets: Implications for portfolio management

Author

Listed:
  • Mensi, Walid
  • Rehman, Mobeen Ur
  • Vo, Xuan Vinh

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic frequency co-movements and volatility spillovers between crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas futures markets during the global financial crisis and European crisis (GFC & ESDC), recent oil price crash, and COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We apply the spillover index by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and wavelet methods. The results show significant risk spillovers among the leading energy futures markets. Moreover, the spillovers are intensified during the financial crisis, oil crisis and COVID-19 outbreak. WTI crude oil is the highest net contributor of volatility spillovers to the other markets, whereas the other energy markets are net receivers of spillovers for the different sub periods, with the exception of natural gas before the GFC and during COVID-19 as well as Brent oil during COVID-19. Furthermore, the results show significant integration and multiscale co-movements among energy futures. Natural gas asset offers better diversification benefits to crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and gas oil under short term. Finally, the diversification gains diminish as scales rise. The optimal weight, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness are time varying and crises-sensitive. These findings have significant implications for energy traders and policymakers to inform their decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Dynamic frequency relationships and volatility spillovers in natural gas, crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, and heating oil markets: Implications for portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721001860
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721001860
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102172?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets: Evidence of systemic risks and co-movements in the time-frequency domain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2020. "Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 181-189.
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 155-170.
    5. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    6. Cai, Guixin & Zhang, Hao & Chen, Ziyue, 2019. "Comovement between commodity sectors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1247-1258.
    7. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Chen, Sheng-Hung & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "Natural gas price, market fundamentals and hedging effectiveness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 321-337.
    8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    9. Jozef Baruník, Evzen Kocenda and Lukáa Vácha, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    10. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Rutledge, Emilie, 2007. "Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 329-347, March.
    11. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    12. Adhikari, Ramesh & Putnam, Kyle J., 2020. "Comovement in the commodity futures markets: An analysis of the energy, grains, and livestock sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    13. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    14. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Lee, Chingnun, 2020. "The asymmetric spillover effect of the Markov switching mechanism from the futures market to the spot market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 374-388.
    15. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2014. "The relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Do structural breaks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 206-217.
    16. Raymond Li & Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2014. "International Natural Gas Market Integration," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(4), pages 159-180, October.
    17. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2), pages 45-60, April.
    18. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
    19. Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael N., 2001. "Spillover effects in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 43-56, January.
    20. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    21. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    22. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 104-118.
    23. Barnes, Ryan & Bosworth, Ryan, 2015. "LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-17.
    24. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B Medlock III & Jennifer E. Rosthal, 2008. "The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 47-66.
    25. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    26. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    27. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    28. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    29. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2021. "Does COVID-19 open a Pandora's box of changing the connectedness in energy commodities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    30. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    31. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    32. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    33. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    34. Li, Xiuming & Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & He, Huizi, 2019. "The spillover effects between natural gas and crude oil markets: The correlation network analysis based on multi-scale approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 306-324.
    35. Param Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa, 1999. "The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 175-193, April.
    36. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-40.
    37. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
    38. Broadstock, David C. & Li, Raymond & Wang, Linjin, 2020. "Integration reforms in the European natural gas market: A rolling-window spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    39. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Spillovers between natural gas, gasoline, oil, and stock markets: Evidence from MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    40. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    41. Jozef Baruník & Evžen KoÄ enda b,a & Lukáš Vácha, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 136-158, January.
    42. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Bouri, Elie & Eraslan, Veysel & Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Energy and non-energy commodities: An asymmetric approach towards portfolio diversification in the commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    43. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Spillovers and co-movements between precious metals and energy markets: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    44. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2017. "The relationship between regional natural gas markets and crude oil markets from a multi-scale nonlinear Granger causality perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 98-110.
    45. Mensi, Walid & Tiwari, Aviral & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2017. "The dependence structure across oil, wheat, and corn: A wavelet-based copula approach using implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 122-139.
    46. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "Further evidence on the debate of oil-gas price decoupling: A long memory approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 68-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2020. "Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 181-189.
    2. Ji, Qiang & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Information spillovers and connectedness networks in the oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 71-84.
    3. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Soo-Wah, Low & Billah, Mabruk, 2023. "Time-frequency connectedness and spillover among carbon, climate, and energy futures: Determinants and portfolio risk management implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    5. Zhang, Dayong & Shi, Min & Shi, Xunpeng, 2018. "Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-41.
    6. Kočenda, Evžen & Moravcová, Michala, 2024. "Frequency volatility connectedness and portfolio hedging of U.S. energy commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Gong, Xu & Liu, Yun & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across oil and natural gas futures markets based on a time-varying spillover method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 104-118.
    10. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2022. "Long-memory and volatility spillovers across petroleum futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2017. "The relationship between regional natural gas markets and crude oil markets from a multi-scale nonlinear Granger causality perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 98-110.
    13. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The connectedness in the world petroleum futures markets using a Quantile VAR approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Palma, Alessia & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Goodell, John W. & Oriani, Marco Ercole, 2024. "The black box of natural gas market: Past, present, and future," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Luo, Keyu & Guo, Qiang & Li, Xiafei, 2022. "Can the return connectedness indices from grey energy to natural gas help to forecast the natural gas returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Wang, Tiantian & Qu, Wan & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Time-varying determinants of China's liquefied natural gas import price: A dynamic model averaging approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    18. Kumar, Satish & Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil, natural gas, and stock prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 282-291.
    19. Ali Jadidzadeh & Mobin Mirzababaei & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "Oil Prices and the Hydrocarbon Markets: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-9, August.
    20. Chen, Hao & Xu, Chao & Peng, Yun, 2022. "Time-frequency connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets during COVID-19: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy futures markets; crises; Spillovers; Frequencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721001860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.