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Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?

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Cited by:

  1. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1996. "The Expectation Theory: Tests on French, German, and American Euro-Rates," Working papers 35, Banque de France.
  2. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1990. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct," NBER Working Papers 3451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Juan Ayuso & M.L. de la Torre, 1991. "Riesgo y volatilidad en el mercado interbancario," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 89-119, January.
  4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
  5. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The term structure of euromarket interest rates : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-44, January.
  6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2012. "Fractional cointegration in US term spreads," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 431-434, March.
  7. repec:sbe:breart:v:24:y:2004:i:1:a:2702 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
  10. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October.
  11. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
  12. Wahab, Mahmoud, 1997. "On risk, rationality and the predictive ability of European short-term adjusted yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 737-765, September.
  13. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "The term structure of interest rates, the expectations hypothesis and international financial integration: Evidence from Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 679-689, October.
  14. Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Excess long real rate volatility," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 155-176, March.
  15. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
  16. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September.
  17. Godbout, Lise & Storer, Paul & Zimmermann, Christian, 2002. "The Canadian treasury bill auction and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1165-1179, June.
  18. Richard Harris, 2004. "The rational expectations hypothesis and the cross-section of bond yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 105-112.
  19. Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Domestic variance and international comovement bonds tests of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 247-267, March.
  20. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1984. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 44-48, May.
  21. Campbell, John Y, 1986. " A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-193, March.
  22. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
  23. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
  24. Mayfield, E. Scott & Murphy, Robert G., 1996. "Explaining the term structure of interest rates: A panel data approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 11-21, February.
  25. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
  26. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
  27. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
  28. Giovanna Paladino & Gianluca Salsecci, 1999. "Spread corrigé des risques et dynamique du taux d'intérêt à long terme : une application aux marchés allemand, américain et italien," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 45-62.
  29. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 4, pages 077-123 Central Bank of Chile.
  30. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
  31. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:49:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-016-0584-y is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Emilio Dominguez & Alfonso Novales, 2002. "Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 493-504.
  33. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2243-2265, September.
  34. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 555-580, December.
  35. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun & Chiang, Thomas C., 2014. "What explains deviations in the unbiased expectations hypothesis? Market irrationality vs. the peso problem," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 172-190.
  36. Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Reinventing fiscal policy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 3-25.
  38. Tzavalis, Elias, 2004. "The term premium and the puzzles of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-93, January.
  39. Caporale, Barbara & Caporale, Tony, 2003. "Investigating the effects of monetary regime shifts: The case of the Federal Reserve and the shrinking risk premium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 87-91, July.
  40. Christophe Belhomme, 1992. "Prime de risque et effet ARCH," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 55-70.
  41. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 3550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December.
  43. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
  44. Caporale, Barbara & Caporale, Tony, 2008. "Political risk and the expectations hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 178-180, August.
  45. Xavier Freixas, 1992. "Estructura temporal de tipos de interés: hipótesis teóricas y resultados empíricos," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 16(2), pages 187-203, May.
  46. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: Time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  47. Noor Ghazali & Soo-Wah Low, 2002. "The expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets: the case of Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1147-1156.
  48. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2016. "Time-varying risk premium yield spread effect in term structure and global financial crisis: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 303-311.
  49. Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit & Mariam Camarero, 2008. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area:," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(3), pages 1-15.
  50. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
  51. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
  52. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  53. G. Boero & C. Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  54. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
  56. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2007. "A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Working Papers 64, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  57. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
  58. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
  59. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
  60. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Are investors rational in international bond markets?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 169-175, May.
  61. Marco R Barassi & Dayong Zhang, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 09-17, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  62. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Chiang, Thomas C., 1997. "Time series dynamics of short-term interest rates: evidence from Eurocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 201-220, October.
  64. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
  65. Viviana Fernández, 2001. "A Liquidity Premium Puzzle?: Evidence from Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 105, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  66. Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
  69. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
  70. Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Nissanke, Machiko, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility," WIDER Working Paper Series 029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  71. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
  72. Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "Equilibrium term structure relations of risky assets in incomplete markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 327-346.
  73. Castillo, Carlos, 2014. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility smoothing: A two-target, two-instrument approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 330-345.
  74. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
  75. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1988. "International linkages in the term structure of interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 30-43.
  76. Amal Sanyal, 2005. "Keynes’ Metaphor of the Newspaper Competition: A Model," Macroeconomics 0501015, EconWPA.
  77. Francesca Biagini & Alessandro Gnoatto & Maximilian Hartel, 2013. "Affine HJM Framework on $S_{d}^{+}$ and Long-Term Yield," Papers 1311.0688, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
  78. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
  79. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
  80. Paul Francois Muzindutsi & Sinethemba Mposelwa, 2016. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Brics Countries: A Multivariate Co-integration Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(4), pages 289-304, October.
  81. Chiang, Thomas C. & Chiang, Jeanette Jin, 1995. "Emperical analysis of short-term eurocurrency rates: Evidence from a transfer function error correction model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 335-351, October.
  82. M. A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary Policy And Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey Of Empirical Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 110-130, July.
  83. Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-436, July.
  84. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:3:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45.
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