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The expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets: the case of Malaysia

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  • Noor Ghazali
  • Soo-Wah Low

Abstract

This article deals with the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. It is argued that the rapid progress and financial market liberalization that is occurring in emerging financial markets could provide additional evidence for testing the expectation hypothesis. This article employs data from the Malaysian government securities market which represents one of the examples of an emerging financial market. Cointegration and error correction analyses show significant empirical validity for the expectation hypothesis. The long- and short-term interest rates are shown to be cointegrated and subject to a long-run equilibrium path. In addition to shedding some light on the experience of emerging financial market, this article explicitly identifies the process of adjustment towards the long run equilibrium. For the long-run, the results are in favour of the long-to-short version of expectation hypothesis with longer-term interest rates playing a greater role as equilibrium attractor. However, in the short run causal impact runs from short- to long-term interest rates. The empirical findings of the article generally support the proposition of expectation hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Noor Ghazali & Soo-Wah Low, 2002. "The expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets: the case of Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1147-1156.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:9:p:1147-1156
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110074123
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    Cited by:

    1. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
    2. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "Short-rate expectations and term premia: experiences from Hungary and other emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 185-196 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
    4. Daiki Maki, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in the term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis in the non-linear STAR framework," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1301-1307.
    5. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    6. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.
    7. Paul Francois Muzindutsi & Sinethemba Mposelwa, 2016. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Brics Countries: A Multivariate Co-integration Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(4), pages 289-304, October.
    8. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.

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