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The Information Content of the Yield Curve in Australia

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  • Karfakis, C.I.
  • Moschos, D.M.

Abstract

This paper examines the expectation theory of the term structure of interest rates in Australia by looking at the information content of the yield curve. Cointegration results provide evidence that the slope coefficient of the yield curve is unity. Bivariate vector autoregressive analysis (VAR) indicates that the spread between the long term and the short term rates is informative about changes in the short rate. In addition, the spread between the short term rate and the official cash rate has predictive power for changes in the cash rate. These findings imply that the Reserve Bank of Australia could influence the long term rate by intervening on the official cash rate. Finally, the efficient market restrictions were tested and accepted by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Karfakis, C.I. & Moschos, D.M., 1993. "The Information Content of the Yield Curve in Australia," Working Papers 185, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2123/7411
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Are investors rational in international bond markets?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 169-175, May.
    3. Ross Guest & Alan McLean, 1998. "New evidence on the expectations theory of the term structure of Australian Commonwealth Government Treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-87.
    4. Noor Ghazali & Soo-Wah Low, 2002. "The expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets: the case of Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1147-1156.
    5. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Ryan, Vicky, 2010. "An Analysis of the Dynamic Linkages between the Cash Rate and the Government Yield Curve: A Case Study - Un’analisi della relazione dinamica tra cash rate e curva dei rendimenti dei titoli pubblici: s," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(3), pages 329-359.
    6. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573.
    7. Sandy Suardi, 2010. "Nonstationarity, cointegration and structural breaks in the Australian term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2865-2879.

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