IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1992_num_43_1_409338.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prime de risque et effet ARCH

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Belhomme

Abstract

[eng] Risk premium and arch effect . . In this article, we estimate the expected short term interest rate from the term structure theory. Given the existence of a variable risk premium, two specifications are tested, based on the ARCH-M model. The first one estimates the excess returns with the ARCH-M model. In the second one, the premium is estimated directly in the equation defining the short term interest rate ; in that case the premium depends on past innovations on the short term interest rate. This second specification gives the best results with a significant risk premium. [fre] Prime de risque et effet ARCH. . Le but de cet article est d'extraire le taux court anticipé à partir de la théorie de la structure par terme des taux d'intérêt. L'existence d'une prime de risque variable étant acquise, deux méthodes de modélisation de la prime sont envisagées à partir du modèle ARCH in Mean. La première retient le modèle CAPM où l'excès de rendement anticipé dépend de sa variance ; celle-ci est estimée selon un processus ARCH. La deuxième méthode applique directement le modèle ARCH-M à l'équation définissant le taux court anticipé en fonction du taux à terme et de la prime de risque ; cette dernière est alors estimée à partir des erreurs d'anticipation sur le taux court. Les meilleurs résultats sont obtenus avec cette seconde méthode où une prime de risque significative apparaît dans l'équation de détermination du taux court.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Belhomme, 1992. "Prime de risque et effet ARCH," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 55-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1992_num_43_1_409338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1992_num_43_1_409338
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Term premiums in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 529-546, December.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 223-248.
    4. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    5. Grossman, S J & Melino, Angelo & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset-Pricing Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 315-327, July.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    7. Startz, Richard, 1982. "Do forecast errors or term premia really make the difference between long and short rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 323-329, November.
    8. Coulson, N. Edward & Robins, Russell P., 1985. "Aggregate economic activity and the variance of inflation : Another look," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 71-75.
    9. Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jones, David S. & Vance Roley, V., 1983. "Rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure : A test using weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 453-465, September.
    11. Engle, Robert F., 1984. "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.),Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 775-826, Elsevier.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    13. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    14. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems," NBER Working Papers 1812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    16. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
    17. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georges Prat, 1992. "Anticipations, prime de terme et maturité du titre long : que nous enseignent les données séculaires sur la structure des taux d'intérêt ? États-Unis de 1873 à 1975," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1037-1070.
    2. Marie Podevin, 2001. "Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français : un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 49-70.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1992_num_43_1_409338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.