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Keynes’ Metaphor of the Newspaper Competition: A Model

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  • Amal Sanyal

Abstract

Keynes’ General Theory provides an interesting metaphor for asset markets: they are like newspaper competitions where contestants have to pick up the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, and the prize would go to one whose choice is closest to the average preferences. Keynes did not explicitly formalise the metaphor but his observations about the bond market and the speculative demand for money are closely related to this vision of asset markets. Our paper develops a class of decision rules from the suggestions in the General Theory and Keynes' QJE(1937) paper, and introduces a concept of ‘equilibrium guess’ which was not explicit in the newspaper competition idea. Using them we model a bond market which shows that the ‘newspaper competition’ amounts to endogenous determination of asset quality, and is capable of producing familiar Keynesian features: (i) demand for money develops infinite elasticity as interest rate approaches a low critical value; (ii) a shock to expected interest rate when the current rate is small, can lead to mass flight into money; and (iii) the more unanimous the market opinion, the more unstable the market, and the more difficult it is for monetary policy to be effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Amal Sanyal, 2005. "Keynes’ Metaphor of the Newspaper Competition: A Model," Macroeconomics 0501015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501015
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    3. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    4. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    5. Mayer, Colin & Mors, Matthias, 1985. "Company Expectations and New Information: An Application of Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 62, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynes; endogenous quality; stability; liquidity trap; speculative demand.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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