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Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions

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Cited by:

  1. Anil Gaba & Dana G. Popescu & Zhi Chen, 2019. "Assessing Uncertainty from Point Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 90-106, January.
  2. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
  3. Nicholas Longford, 2014. "Policy-related small-area estimation," Economics Working Papers 1427, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Wilson, Kevin J., 2017. "An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 325-336.
  5. K J Wilson & M Farrow, 2010. "Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 309-321, December.
  6. Michael D. Teter & Johannes O. Royset & Alexandra M. Newman, 2019. "Modeling uncertainty of expert elicitation for use in risk-based optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 280(1), pages 189-210, September.
  7. Maarten Ijzerman & Lotte Steuten, 2011. "Early assessment of medical technologies to inform product development and market access," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 331-347, September.
  8. Dawkins, L.C. & Williamson, D.B. & Barr, S.W. & Lampkin, S.R., 2018. "Influencing transport behaviour: A Bayesian modelling approach for segmentation of social surveys," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-103.
  9. Jiayuan Dong & Jiankan Liao & Xun Huan & Daniel Cooper, 2023. "Expert elicitation and data noise learning for material flow analysis using Bayesian inference," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(4), pages 1105-1122, August.
  10. Bajgiran, Amirsaman H. & Mardikoraem, Mahsa & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2021. "Maximum entropy distributions with quantile information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 196-209.
  11. Sheng Wu & Weng Kee Wong & Catherine M. Crespi, 2017. "Maximin optimal designs for cluster randomized trials," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 916-926, September.
  12. Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2009. "Evaluating Quantile Assessments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1287-1297, October.
  13. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Hazen, Gordon B. & Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Plischke, Elmar, 2021. "Probabilistic sensitivity measures as information value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 595-610.
  14. Bistline, John E., 2014. "Energy technology expert elicitations: An application to natural gas turbine efficiencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 177-187.
  15. Peter Boatwright & Sharad Borle & Joseph B. Kadane, 2010. "Common Value vs. Private Value Categories in Online Auctions: A Distinction Without a Difference?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 86-98, March.
  16. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2022. "Comparing probabilistic forecasts of the daily minimum and maximum temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 267-281.
  17. Saldanha-da-Gama, Francisco, 2022. "Facility Location in Logistics and Transportation: An enduring relationship," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  18. Nicolas Bousquet, 2010. "Eliciting vague but proper maximal entropy priors in Bayesian experiments," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 613-628, September.
  19. Jacobs, Michael & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2010. "The Bayesian Approach to Default Risk: A Guide," Working Papers 10-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  20. Christopher C. Hadlock & J. Eric Bickel, 2017. "Johnson Quantile-Parameterized Distributions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 35-64, March.
  21. Xie, Hua & You, Liangzhi & Dile, Yihun T. & Worqlul, Abeyou W. & Bizimana, Jean-Claude & Srinivasan, Raghavan & Richardson, James W. & Gerik, Thomas & Clark, Neville, 2021. "Mapping development potential of dry-season small-scale irrigation in Sub-Saharan African countries under joint biophysical and economic constraints - An agent-based modeling approach with an applicat," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  22. Salvador Pueyo, 2012. "Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 163-179, July.
  23. Satoshi Morita & Peter F. Thall & Peter Müller, 2008. "Determining the Effective Sample Size of a Parametric Prior," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 595-602, June.
  24. Felix Made & Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala & Derk Brouwer, 2023. "Bayesian Hierarchical Framework from Expert Elicitation in the South African Coal Mining Industry for Compliance Testing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-15, January.
  25. Wenping Xu & Zongjun Wang & Liu Hong & Ligang He & Xueguang Chen, 2015. "The uncertainty recovery analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems using the dynamic inoperability input–output model," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 1299-1306, May.
  26. Das Sourish & Yang Hongxia & Banks David, 2012. "Synthetic Priors that Merge Opinion from Multiple Experts," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, December.
  27. Barker, Kash & Haimes, Yacov Y., 2009. "Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 819-829.
  28. Claire Copeland & Britta Turner & Gareth Powells & Kevin Wilson, 2022. "In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, July.
  29. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2009. "Default estimation for low-default portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 164-173, January.
  30. Laura McCullagh & Cathal Walsh & Michael Barry, 2012. "Value-of-Information Analysis to Reduce Decision Uncertainty Associated with the Choice of Thromboprophylaxis after Total Hip Replacement in the Irish Healthcare Setting," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(10), pages 941-959, October.
  31. Nicholas T. Longford, 2015. "Policy-Oriented Inference And The Analyst-Client Cooperation. An Example From Small-Area Statistics," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 65-82, March.
  32. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Han Bleichrodt & Emmanuel Kemel & Olivier l’Haridon, 2021. "Measuring Beliefs Under Ambiguity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 599-612, March.
  33. Chad Kendall & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 322-353, January.
  34. Tom Lindström & Michael Tildesley & Colleen Webb, 2015. "A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, April.
  35. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  36. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:5:p:962-987 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Fadlalla Elfadaly & Paul Garthwaite, 2013. "Eliciting Dirichlet and Connor–Mosimann prior distributions for multinomial models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(4), pages 628-646, November.
  38. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2013. "An expert elicitation of climate, energy and economic uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 811-821.
  39. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:5:p:962-987 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Nicholas Tibor Longford, 2016. "Decision Theory Applied to Selecting the Winners, Ranking, and Classification," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 41(4), pages 420-442, August.
  41. Robert Stewart & Marie Urban & Samantha Duchscherer & Jason Kaufman & April Morton & Gautam Thakur & Jesse Piburn & Jessica Moehl, 2016. "A Bayesian machine learning model for estimating building occupancy from open source data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1929-1956, April.
  42. Storlie, Curtis B. & Helton, Jon C., 2008. "Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 28-54.
  43. Nicholas Longford, 2014. "Incompatibility of estimation and policy objectives. An example from small-area estimation," Economics Working Papers 1447, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  44. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S.H. Al‐Jibouri & Johannes I.M. Halman & Frits A. van Tol, 2014. "Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 323-339, February.
  45. A. El-Bassiouny & M. Jones, 2009. "A bivariate F distribution with marginals on arbitrary numerator and denominator degrees of freedom, and related bivariate beta and t distributions," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 18(4), pages 465-481, November.
  46. Jesus Palomo & David Rios Insua & Fabrizio Ruggeri, 2007. "Modeling External Risks in Project Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 961-978, August.
  47. Abhinav B. Agrawal & Kash Barker & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "Adaptive multiplayer approach for risk‐based decision‐making: 2006 Virginia Gubernatorial Inauguration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 455-470, December.
  48. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
  49. Anna Chrysafi & Vili Virkki & Mika Jalava & Vilma Sandström & Johannes Piipponen & Miina Porkka & Steven J. Lade & Kelsey Mere & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Laura Scherer & Lauren S. Andersen & Elena Bennet, 2022. "Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 830-842, October.
  50. Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2017. "Correlated defaults, temporal correlation, expert information and predictability of default rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 699-712, October.
  51. Alexina J. Mason & Manuel Gomes & Richard Grieve & James R. Carpenter, 2018. "A Bayesian framework for health economic evaluation in studies with missing data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(11), pages 1670-1683, November.
  52. Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Conceptual basis for the definition and calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 677-698.
  53. Mitchell J. Small, 2008. "Methods for Assessing Uncertainty in Fundamental Assumptions and Associated Models for Cancer Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1289-1308, October.
  54. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
  55. Sallaberry, C.J. & Helton, J.C. & Hora, S.C., 2008. "Extension of Latin hypercube samples with correlated variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 1047-1059.
  56. Mani Suleiman & Haydar Demirhan & Leanne Boyd & Federico Girosi & Vural Aksakalli, 2022. "Bayesian prediction of emergency department wait time," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 275-290, June.
  57. Tony Lancaster, 2009. "Review 1," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 404-409, June.
  58. Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2011. "Default estimation, correlated defaults, and expert information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 173-192, March.
  59. Heaps, Sarah E. & Boys, Richard J. & Farrow, Malcolm, 2014. "Computation of marginal likelihoods with data-dependent support for latent variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 392-401.
  60. J. S. Busby & B. Green & D. Hutchison, 2017. "Analysis of Affordance, Time, and Adaptation in the Assessment of Industrial Control System Cybersecurity Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1298-1314, July.
  61. Marcello Basili & Federico Crudu, 2021. "Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes," Department of Economics University of Siena 868, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  62. Fadlalla G. Elfadaly & Paul H. Garthwaite, 2020. "On quantifying expert opinion about multinomial models that contain covariates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 959-981, June.
  63. Yuan, Jun & Ng, Szu Hui & Sou, Weng Sut, 2016. "Uncertainty quantification of CO2 emission reduction for maritime shipping," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 113-130.
  64. Constantinou Anthony Costa & Fenton Norman Elliott, 2012. "Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, March.
  65. Dan Zhou & Zhonghao Guo & Yuzhe Xie & Yuheng Hu & Da Jiang & Yibin Feng & Dong Liu, 2022. "Using Bayesian Deep Learning for Electric Vehicle Charging Station Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-15, August.
  66. Azamat Abdymomunov & Sharon Blei & Bakhodir Ergashev, 2015. "Integrating Stress Scenarios into Risk Quantification Models," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 57-79, February.
  67. Justin W. Eggstaff & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Shahram Sarkani, 2014. "The Development of Progress Plans Using a Performance‐Based Expert Judgment Model to Assess Technical Performance and Risk," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 375-391, December.
  68. Danila Azzolina & Paola Berchialla & Silvia Bressan & Liviana Da Dalt & Dario Gregori & Ileana Baldi, 2022. "A Bayesian Sample Size Estimation Procedure Based on a B-Splines Semiparametric Elicitation Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-15, October.
  69. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:25-28 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Danila Azzolina & Paola Berchialla & Dario Gregori & Ileana Baldi, 2021. "Prior Elicitation for Use in Clinical Trial Design and Analysis: A Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-21, February.
  71. Jacqueline Anne MacDonald & Mitchell J. Small & M. G. Morgan, 2008. "Explosion Probability of Unexploded Ordnance: Expert Beliefs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 825-841, August.
  72. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
  73. Laura C. Dawkins & Daniel B. Williamson & Stewart W. Barr & Sally R. Lampkin, 2020. "‘What drives commuter behaviour?': a Bayesian clustering approach for understanding opposing behaviours in social surveys," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 251-280, January.
  74. Biener, Christian, 2013. "Pricing in Microinsurance Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 132-144.
  75. Byron Gajewski & Larry Price & Valorie Coffland & Diane Boyle & Marjorie Bott, 2013. "Integrated analysis of content and construct validity of psychometric instruments," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 57-78, January.
  76. Lorenzo Trippa & Gary L. Rosner & Peter Müller, 2012. "Bayesian Enrichment Strategies for Randomized Discontinuation Trials," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 203-211, March.
  77. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "How Experience Confirms the Gambler's Fallacy when Sample Size is Neglected," OSF Preprints m5xsk, Center for Open Science.
  78. Marco Alfò & Dankmar Böhning & Irene Rocchetti, 2021. "Upper bound estimators of the population size based on ordinal models for capture‐recapture experiments," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 237-248, March.
  79. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
  80. Helton, Jon C., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Conceptual and computational basis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 976-1013.
  81. LONGFORD Nicholas Tibor, 2011. "Policy-related small.area estimation," LISER Working Paper Series 2011-44, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
  82. Wisse, Bram & Bedford, Tim & Quigley, John, 2008. "Expert judgement combination using moment methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 675-686.
  83. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S.H. Al‐jibouri & Johannes I.M. Halman & Frits A. van Tol, 2013. "Capturing and Integrating Knowledge for Managing Risks in Tunnel Works," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 92-108, January.
  84. M Revie & T Bedford & L Walls, 2010. "Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 322-332, December.
  85. Clancy, Damian & Tanner, Jason E. & McWilliam, Stephen & Spencer, Matthew, 2010. "Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(10), pages 1337-1347.
  86. Se Yoon Lee, 2022. "Bayesian Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data: An Overview, Implementation, and Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-51, March.
  87. Eggstaff, Justin W. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2014. "The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 72-82.
  88. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
  89. Dai, Min & Jia, Yanwei & Kou, Steven, 2021. "The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 561-578.
  90. Harold P. Lehmann & Nkossi Dambita & George R. Buchanan & James F. Casella, 2011. "Decision Modeling of Disagreements," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(6), pages 805-815, November.
  91. Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., 2009. "Random quantiles of the Dirichlet process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 501-507, February.
  92. Manuela Buzoianu & Joseph B. Kadane, 2009. "Optimal Bayesian Design for Patient Selection in a Clinical Study," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 953-961, September.
  93. Andres Felipe Florez Rivera & Juan Carlos Correa Morales & Manuel Garcia Florez, 2015. "Interactive R App for Carrying Out an Elicitation Process Applied to Prostate Cancer in Colombia," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(2), pages 119-129, June.
  94. Wilson, Alyson G. & Anderson-Cook, Christine M. & Huzurbazar, Aparna V., 2011. "A case study for quantifying system reliability and uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1076-1084.
  95. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 456-464.
  96. Nicholas T. Longford, 2015. "Policy-oriented inference and the analyst-client cooperation. An example from small-area statistics," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 16(1), pages 65-82, May.
  97. Daniela Grieco, 2018. "Innovation and stock market performance: A model with ambiguity-averse agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 287-303, April.
  98. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
  99. Hosack, Geoffrey R. & Hayes, Keith R. & Barry, Simon C., 2017. "Prior elicitation for Bayesian generalised linear models with application to risk control option assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 351-361.
  100. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," Cuadernos de Desarrollo Económico 7586, Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico.
  101. Johan René van Dorp & Salvador Cruz Rambaud & José García Pérez & Rafael Herrerías Pleguezuelo, 2007. "An Elicitation Procedure for the Generalized Trapezoidal Distribution with a Uniform Central Stage," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 156-166, September.
  102. A Zuashkiani & D Banjevic & A K S Jardine, 2009. "Estimating parameters of proportional hazards model based on expert knowledge and statistical data," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1621-1636, December.
  103. V. J. Roelofs & W. Roelofs, 2013. "Using Probability Boxes to Model Elicited Information: A Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(9), pages 1650-1660, September.
  104. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2007. "Default Estimation and Expert Information: All Likely Dataset Analysis and Robust Validation," Working Papers 07-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  105. Hathout, Michel & Vuillet, Marc & Carvajal, Claudio & Peyras, Laurent & Diab, Youssef, 2019. "Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 377-392.
  106. Schmidli, Heinz & Neuenschwander, Beat & Friede, Tim, 2017. "Meta-analytic-predictive use of historical variance data for the design and analysis of clinical trials," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 100-110.
  107. Mary Kynn, 2008. "The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 239-264, January.
  108. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Margins associated with loss of assured safety for systems with multiple weak links and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  109. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  110. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2011. "An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 380-392, October.
  111. Longford Nicholas T., 2015. "Policy-Oriented Inference and the Analyst-Client Cooperation. An Example from Small-Area Statistics," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 65-82, March.
  112. Malhotra, Abhishek & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Haelg, Leonore & Waissbein, Oliver, 2017. "Scaling up finance for off-grid renewable energy: The role of aggregation and spatial diversification in derisking investments in mini-grids for rural electrification in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 657-672.
  113. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
  114. Geoffrey Jones & Wesley O. Johnson, 2014. "Prior Elicitation: Interactive Spreadsheet Graphics With Sliders Can Be Fun, and Informative," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(1), pages 42-51, February.
  115. Wiśniowski Arkadiusz & Bijak Jakub & Forster Jonathan J. & Raymer James & Smith Peter W.F. & Christiansen Solveig & Keilman Nico, 2013. "Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(4), pages 583-607, December.
  116. Joseph B. Kadane & Baruch Fischhoff, 2013. "A cautionary note on global recalibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(1), pages 25-28, January.
  117. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
  118. Selma Metzner & Gerd Wübbeler & Clemens Elster, 2019. "Approximate large-scale Bayesian spatial modeling with application to quantitative magnetic resonance imaging," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(3), pages 333-355, September.
  119. Gatzert, Nadine & Vogl, Nikolai, 2016. "Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 238-252.
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