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Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Chrysafi

    (Aalto University
    Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • Vili Virkki

    (Aalto University)

  • Mika Jalava

    (Aalto University)

  • Vilma Sandström

    (Aalto University)

  • Johannes Piipponen

    (Aalto University)

  • Miina Porkka

    (Aalto University
    Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)

  • Steven J. Lade

    (Stockholm University
    Australian National University)

  • Kelsey Mere

    (Tampere University)

  • Lan Wang-Erlandsson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Laura Scherer

    (Leiden University)

  • Lauren S. Andersen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Elena Bennett

    (McGill University
    McGill University)

  • Kate A. Brauman

    (University of Alabama)

  • Gregory S. Cooper

    (University of Sheffield
    University of Sheffield)

  • Adriana Palma

    (Natural History Museum)

  • Petra Döll

    (Goethe University Frankfurt
    Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt (SBiK‐F))

  • Andrea S. Downing

    (Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
    Stockholm University)

  • Timothy C. DuBois

    (Stockholm University)

  • Ingo Fetzer

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Elizabeth A. Fulton

    (CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
    University of Tasmania)

  • Dieter Gerten

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Hadi Jaafar

    (American University of Beirut)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
    NASA
    Columbia University)

  • Fernando Jaramillo

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Martin Jung

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Helena Kahiluoto

    (LUT University)

  • Luis Lassaletta

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • Anson W. Mackay

    (University College London)

  • Daniel Mason-D’Croz

    (Cornell University
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food
    Wageningen University & Research)

  • Mesfin M. Mekonnen

    (University of Alabama)

  • Kirsty L. Nash

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

  • Amandine V. Pastor

    (ITAP, University of Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro
    Research Group for Environmental Lifecycle and Sustainability Assessment (ELSA)
    University of Lisbon)

  • Navin Ramankutty

    (University of British Columbia
    University of British Columbia)

  • Brad Ridoutt

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food
    University of the Free State)

  • Stefan Siebert

    (University of Göttingen
    University of Göttingen)

  • Benno I. Simmons

    (University of Exeter)

  • Arie Staal

    (Utrecht University)

  • Zhongxiao Sun

    (Leiden University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Arne Tobian

    (Stockholm University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño

    (University College London
    Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

  • Ruud J. Ent

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Arnout Soesbergen

    (King’s College London
    UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

  • Peter H. Verburg

    (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM))

  • Yoshihide Wada

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Sam Zipper

    (University of Kansas)

  • Matti Kummu

    (Aalto University)

Abstract

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Chrysafi & Vili Virkki & Mika Jalava & Vilma Sandström & Johannes Piipponen & Miina Porkka & Steven J. Lade & Kelsey Mere & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Laura Scherer & Lauren S. Andersen & Elena Bennet, 2022. "Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 830-842, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41893-022-00940-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Boonaert, Eva & Maertens, Miet, 2023. "Voluntary sustainability standards and farmer welfare: The pathways to success?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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