IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v486y2023ics0304380023002636.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Batista, Fabiana de Souza
  • Duku, Confidence
  • Hein, Lars

Abstract

Whereas the global demand for food, fiber and energy is increasing, the capacity of ecosystems services to sustain agricultural production is being compromised worldwide. Brazil is a global food supplier that has benefitted from agricultural intensification in the past decades. At the same time, expansion of cropland has led to deforestation that, in turn, is increasingly affecting rainfall patterns thereby influencing crop yields. This study examines how loss in forest cover has impacted agricultural yields through change in rainfall. To do so, we use modelled data on changes in rainfall patterns due to deforestation as input to a crop model. We assess yield changes within the soybean-maize double cropping system, the country's most relevant agricultural system, in five states within the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Findings revealed that soybean and maize yields would have been respectively 6.6 % and 9.9 % higher per year in the last decade if rainfall patterns hadn't been altered by deforestation from 1982 onwards. Although agricultural efficiency improved between 2011 and 2020, it was insufficient to offset the negative effect of altered rainfall on yields. Our paper reveals the link between deforestation and crop yields, emphasizing the need to preserve forest cover for agricultural resilience and food security. It reinforces the critical role of forests in regulating the water cycle, particularly in the face of climate change-induced warmer and drier conditions that can impact agricultural production and other human activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:486:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023002636
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110533
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380023002636
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110533?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar, 2019. "Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 254-267.
    2. Deborah Lawrence & Karen Vandecar, 2015. "Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 27-36, January.
    3. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
    4. da S. Andrea, Maria Carolina & Boote, Kenneth J. & Sentelhas, Paulo C. & Romanelli, Thiago L., 2018. "Variability and limitations of maize production in Brazil: Potential yield, water-limited yield and yield gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 264-273.
    5. Stephanie A. Spera & Jonathan M. Winter & Trevor F. Partridge, 2020. "Brazilian maize yields negatively affected by climate after land clearing," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 845-852, October.
    6. de Wit, Allard & Boogaard, Hendrik & Fumagalli, Davide & Janssen, Sander & Knapen, Rob & van Kraalingen, Daniel & Supit, Iwan & van der Wijngaart, Raymond & van Diepen, Kees, 2019. "25 years of the WOFOST cropping systems model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 154-167.
    7. Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho & Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho & Juliana Leroy Davis & Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão & Jan Börner, 2021. "Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    8. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    9. Patricio Grassini & Kent M. Eskridge & Kenneth G. Cassman, 2013. "Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Araújo, Mayara Lucyanne Santos de & Sano, Edson Eyji & Bolfe, Édson Luis & Santos, Jessflan Rafael Nascimento & dos Santos, Juliana Sales & Silva, Fabrício Brito, 2019. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean crop in the Matopiba region, Brazil (1990–2015)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 57-67.
    11. Ludmila Rattis & Paulo M. Brando & Marcia N. Macedo & Stephanie A. Spera & Andrea D. A. Castanho & Eduardo Q. Marques & Nathane Q. Costa & Divino V. Silverio & Michael T. Coe, 2021. "Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1098-1104, December.
    12. Battisti, Rafael & Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Tavares, Érica Basílio & Knapp, Fábio Miguel & Bender, Fabiani Denise & Casaroli, Derblai & Alves Júnior, José, 2020. "Rules for grown soybean-maize cropping system in Midwestern Brazil: Food production and economic profits," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Deborah Lawrence & Karen Vandecar, 2015. "Erratum: Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 174-174, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yue Li & Paulo M. Brando & Douglas C. Morton & David M. Lawrence & Hui Yang & James T. Randerson, 2022. "Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Flach, Rafaela & Abrahão, Gabriel & Bryant, Benjamin & Scarabello, Marluce & Soterroni, Aline C. & Ramos, Fernando M. & Valin, Hugo & Obersteiner, Michael & Cohn, Avery S., 2021. "Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    6. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Apeti, Ablam Estel & N’Doua, Bossoma Doriane, 2023. "The impact of timber regulations on timber and timber product trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    8. Magalhães de Oliveira, Gustavo & Sellare, Jorge & Cisneros, Elias, Börner, Jan & Börner, Jan, 2024. "Mind your language: Political signaling and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Discussion Papers 333334, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    9. Anna Chrysafi & Vili Virkki & Mika Jalava & Vilma Sandström & Johannes Piipponen & Miina Porkka & Steven J. Lade & Kelsey Mere & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Laura Scherer & Lauren S. Andersen & Elena Bennet, 2022. "Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 830-842, October.
    10. Pal, Saheb & Ghosh, Indrajit, 2023. "Dynamics of a coupled socio-environmental model: An application to global CO2 emissions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    11. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Stigler, Matthieu M., 2020. "Global Yield Distributions since 1960," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304570, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    13. Shen Yuan & Bruce A. Linquist & Lloyd T. Wilson & Kenneth G. Cassman & Alexander M. Stuart & Valerien Pede & Berta Miro & Kazuki Saito & Nurwulan Agustiani & Vina Eka Aristya & Leonardus Y. Krisnadi &, 2021. "Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Matteo Coronese & Martina Occelli & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Towards sustainable agriculture: behaviors, spatial dynamics and policy in an evolutionary agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2024/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Jiang, Shouzheng & Wu, Jie & Wang, Zhihui & He, Ziling & Wang, Mingjun & Yao, Weiwei & Feng, Yu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal variations of cropland carbon sequestration and water loss across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    16. Ac-Pangan, Walter & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Zereyesus, Yacob A. & Kee, Jennifer Y. & Jelliffe, Jeremy L. & Morgan, Stephen N. & Cardell, Lila & Nava, Noé J., 2023. "Global grain supply forecasting," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335783, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Jingmeng Wang & Wei Li & Philippe Ciais & Laurent Z. X. Li & Jinfeng Chang & Daniel Goll & Thomas Gasser & Xiaomeng Huang & Narayanappa Devaraju & Olivier Boucher, 2021. "Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    18. Battisti, Rafael & Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Tavares, Érica Basílio & Knapp, Fábio Miguel & Bender, Fabiani Denise & Casaroli, Derblai & Alves Júnior, José, 2020. "Rules for grown soybean-maize cropping system in Midwestern Brazil: Food production and economic profits," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    19. Qiao, Shengchao & Harrison, Sandy P. & Prentice, I. Colin & Wang, Han, 2023. "Optimality-based modelling of wheat sowing dates globally," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    20. Raquel Fernández-González & Félix Puime Guillén & Otilia Manta & Simona Andreea Apostu & Valentina Vasile, 2022. "Forest Management Communities’ Participation in Bioenergy Production Initiatives: A Case Study for Galicia (Spain)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:486:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023002636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.