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Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Ludmila Rattis

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center
    Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia)

  • Paulo M. Brando

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center
    Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia
    Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine)

  • Marcia N. Macedo

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center
    Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia)

  • Stephanie A. Spera

    (Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond)

  • Andrea D. A. Castanho

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center)

  • Eduardo Q. Marques

    (Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso)

  • Nathane Q. Costa

    (Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia)

  • Divino V. Silverio

    (Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia)

  • Michael T. Coe

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center
    Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia)

Abstract

Brazil’s leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during the early stages of crop development—a pattern observed in rainfed and irrigated areas alike. Although agricultural expansion and intensification have increased over time, dry–hot weather during drought events has slowed their rate of growth. Recent regional warming and drying already have pushed 28% of current agricultural lands out of their optimum climate space. We project that 51% of the region’s agriculture will move out of that climate space by 2030 and 74% by 2060. Although agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludmila Rattis & Paulo M. Brando & Marcia N. Macedo & Stephanie A. Spera & Andrea D. A. Castanho & Eduardo Q. Marques & Nathane Q. Costa & Divino V. Silverio & Michael T. Coe, 2021. "Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1098-1104, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01214-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01214-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Kosha J. Mehta, 2022. "Effect of sleep and mood on academic performance—at interface of physiology, psychology, and education," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Edson Eyji Sano & Édson Luis Bolfe & Taya Cristo Parreiras & Giovana Maranhão Bettiol & Luiz Eduardo Vicente & Ieda Del′Arco Sanches & Daniel de Castro Victoria, 2023. "Estimating Double Cropping Plantations in the Brazilian Cerrado through PlanetScope Monthly Mosaics," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Tarik Tanure & Rafael Faria de Abreu Campos & Júlio César Reis & Rayna Benzeev & Peter Newton & Renato Aragão Ribeiro Rodrigues & Ana Maria Hermeto Camilo de Oliveira, 2024. "Farmers’ perceptions of climate change affect their adoption of sustainable agricultural technologies in the Brazilian Amazon and Atlantic Forest biomes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Wiranarongkorn, K. & Im-orb, K. & Patcharavorachot, Y. & Maréchal, F. & Arpornwichanop, A., 2023. "Comparative techno-economic and energy analyses of integrated biorefinery processes of furfural and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural from biomass residue," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Liu, Suxia & Deichmann, Majken & Moro, Mariú A. & Andersen, Lars S. & Li, Fulin & Dalgaard, Tommy & McKnight, Ursula S., 2022. "Targeting sustainable greenhouse agriculture policies in China and Denmark: A comparative study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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