IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i5p943-d1643372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Spatial Relationships Between Tree Cover and Regional Temperature and Precipitation of the Yucatán Peninsula Applying Spatial Autoregressive Models

Author

Listed:
  • Mayra Vázquez-Luna

    (Facultad de Ciencias Agrícolas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91000, Mexico)

  • Edward A. Ellis

    (Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Morelos 44, Col. Centro, Xalapa 91000, Mexico)

  • María Angélica Navarro-Martínez

    (El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Chetumal, Avenida del Centenario km 5.5. s/n, Chetumal 77014, Mexico)

  • Carlos Roberto Cerdán-Cabrera

    (Facultad de Ciencias Agrícolas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91000, Mexico)

  • Gustavo Celestino Ortiz-Ceballos

    (Facultad de Ciencias Agrícolas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91000, Mexico)

Abstract

Deforestation and forest degradation are important drivers of global warming, yet their implications on regional temperature and precipitation patterns are more elusive. In the Yucatán Peninsula, forest cover loss and deterioration has been rapidly advancing over the past decades. We applied local indicators of spatial association (LISA) cluster analysis and spatial autoregressive models (SAR) to evaluate the spatial relationships between tree cover and regional temperature and precipitation. We integrated NASA’s Global Forest Cover Change (GFCC) and WorldClim’s historical monthly weather datasets (2000–2015) to assess the effects of deforested, degraded, and dense forest land cover on temperature and precipitation distributions on the Yucatán Peninsula. LISA cluster analyses show warmer and drier conditions geographically coincide with deforested and degraded tree cover, but outliers allude to the potential influence of forest cover impacts on regional climate. Controlling spatial dependencies and including covariates, SAR models indicate that deforestation is associated with higher annual mean temperatures and minimum temperatures during dry and wet seasons, and decreased precipitation in the dry season. Degraded tree cover was related to higher maximum temperatures but did not relate to precipitation variability. We highlight the complex interactions between forest cover and climate and emphasize the importance of forest conservation for mitigating regional climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayra Vázquez-Luna & Edward A. Ellis & María Angélica Navarro-Martínez & Carlos Roberto Cerdán-Cabrera & Gustavo Celestino Ortiz-Ceballos, 2025. "Evaluating the Spatial Relationships Between Tree Cover and Regional Temperature and Precipitation of the Yucatán Peninsula Applying Spatial Autoregressive Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-28, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:943-:d:1643372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/943/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/943/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ming Lu & Yan Zhang & Fan Liang & Yuanxiang Wu, 2022. "Spatial Relationship between Land Use Patterns and Ecosystem Services Value—Case Study of Nanjing," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Deborah Lawrence & Karen Vandecar, 2015. "Erratum: Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 174-174, February.
    3. Vitor H. F. Gomes & Ima C. G. Vieira & Rafael P. Salomão & Hans ter Steege, 2019. "Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 547-553, July.
    4. Deborah Lawrence & Karen Vandecar, 2015. "Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 27-36, January.
    5. Patrick Longobardi & Alvaro Montenegro & Hugo Beltrami & Michael Eby, 2016. "Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, April.
    6. Sylvia S. Nyawira & Martin Herold & Kalkidan Ayele Mulatu & Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta & Richard A. Houghton & Giacomo Grassi & Julia Pongratz & Thomas Gasser & Louis Verchot, 2024. "Pantropical CO2 emissions and removals for the AFOLU sector in the period 1990–2018," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Seunghoo Jeong & D. K. Yoon, 2018. "Examining Vulnerability Factors to Natural Disasters with a Spatial Autoregressive Model: The Case of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    8. David Romero & José Francisco León-Cruz, 2024. "Spatiotemporal changes in hurricane-force wind risk assessment in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(5), pages 4675-4698, March.
    9. Marianna Fenzi & Paul Rogé & Angel Cruz-Estrada & John Tuxill & Devra Jarvis, 2022. "Community seed network in an era of climate change: dynamics of maize diversity in Yucatán, Mexico," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(1), pages 339-356, March.
    10. Dengjuan Liu & Wei Liu & Yuming He, 2024. "How Does the Intensive Use of Urban Construction Land Improve Carbon Emission Efficiency?—Evidence from the Panel Data of 30 Provinces in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Apeti, Ablam Estel & N’Doua, Bossoma Doriane, 2023. "The impact of timber regulations on timber and timber product trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Magalhães de Oliveira, Gustavo & Sellare, Jorge & Cisneros, Elias & Börner, Jan, 2024. "Mind your language: Political signaling and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Discussion Papers 333334, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. Anna Chrysafi & Vili Virkki & Mika Jalava & Vilma Sandström & Johannes Piipponen & Miina Porkka & Steven J. Lade & Kelsey Mere & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Laura Scherer & Lauren S. Andersen & Elena Bennet, 2022. "Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 830-842, October.
    5. Pal, Saheb & Ghosh, Indrajit, 2023. "Dynamics of a coupled socio-environmental model: An application to global CO2 emissions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    6. Jia Liu & Yunfeng Hu & Zhiming Feng & Chiwei Xiao, 2025. "A Review of Land Use and Land Cover in Mainland Southeast Asia over Three Decades (1990–2023)," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, April.
    7. Jiang, Shouzheng & Wu, Jie & Wang, Zhihui & He, Ziling & Wang, Mingjun & Yao, Weiwei & Feng, Yu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal variations of cropland carbon sequestration and water loss across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    8. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jingmeng Wang & Wei Li & Philippe Ciais & Laurent Z. X. Li & Jinfeng Chang & Daniel Goll & Thomas Gasser & Xiaomeng Huang & Narayanappa Devaraju & Olivier Boucher, 2021. "Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Raquel Fernández-González & Félix Puime Guillén & Otilia Manta & Simona Andreea Apostu & Valentina Vasile, 2022. "Forest Management Communities’ Participation in Bioenergy Production Initiatives: A Case Study for Galicia (Spain)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Abhishek Lodh & Stuti Haldar, 2024. "Investigating the impact of tropical deforestation on Indian monsoon hydro-climate: a novel study using a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 11399-11431, September.
    12. Hao Yu & Wei Song, 2023. "Research Progress on the Impact of Land Use Change on Soil Carbon Sequestration," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Crepin, Léa, 2024. "Do forest conservation policies undermine the soybean sector in the Brazilian Amazon? Evidence from the priority listing of municipalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    14. Charissa Bosma & Lars Hein, 2023. "The climate and land use change nexus: Implications for designing adaptation and conservation investment strategies in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 3811-3830, October.
    15. Yong Wu & Binbing Guo & Xiaoli Zhang & Hongbin Luo & Zhibo Yu & Huipeng Li & Kaize Shi & Leiguang Wang & Weiheng Xu & Guanglong Ou, 2024. "Response of Hydrothermal Conditions to the Saturation Values of Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation by Remote Sensing in Yunnan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, September.
    16. D'Odorico, Paolo & Dell'Angelo, Jampel & Cristina Rulli, Maria, 2024. "Appropriation pathways of water grabbing," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Ruta Puziene, 2024. "Investigating Forest Cover Change Using Historical GIS Technologies: A Case Study with an Example of Jurbarkas District of the Republic of Lithuania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-52, June.
    18. Djenontin, Ida N.S. & Zulu, Leo C., 2021. "The quest for context-relevant governance of agro-forest landscape restoration in Central Malawi: Insights from local processes," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    20. Shyamsundar, Priya & Sauls, Laura Aileen & Cheek, Jennifer Zavaleta & Sullivan-Wiley, Kira & Erbaugh, J.T. & Krishnapriya, P.P., 2021. "Global forces of change: Implications for forest-poverty dynamics," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:943-:d:1643372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.