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Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Wiśniowski Arkadiusz

    (Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Bijak Jakub

    (Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Christiansen Solveig

    (Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway)

  • Forster Jonathan J.

    (Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Keilman Nico

    (Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway)

  • Raymer James

    (Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Smith Peter W.F.

    (Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

Abstract

In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiśniowski Arkadiusz & Bijak Jakub & Christiansen Solveig & Forster Jonathan J. & Keilman Nico & Raymer James & Smith Peter W.F., 2013. "Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(4), pages 583-607, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:583-607:n:6
    DOI: 10.2478/jos-2013-0041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jakub Bijak & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 775-796, October.
    2. Guy J. Abel, 2010. "Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 797-825, October.
    3. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June.
    4. Joop Beer & James Raymer & Rob Erf & Leo Wissen, 2010. "Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe [Surmonter les problèmes d’incohérences des données sur les migrations internationales:," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 459-481, November.
    5. Jack DeWaard & Keuntae Kim & James Raymer, 2012. "Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1307-1333, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Del Fava, Emanuele & Wiśniowsk, Arkadiusz & Zagheni, Emilio, 2019. "Modelling International Migration Flows by Integrating Multiple Data Sources," SocArXiv cma5h, Center for Open Science.
    2. Jack DeWaard & Jasmine Trang Ha & James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 33-53, February.
    3. Jihye Kim & Wendy Olsen & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2020. "A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 13(6), pages 1975-2001, December.

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