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Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe

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  • Guy J. Abel

Abstract

Summary. A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and the receiving countries. For the last situation, reported counts rarely match owing to differences in definitions and data collection systems. We report counts harmonized by using correction factors estimated from a constrained optimization procedure. Factors are applied to scale data that are known to be of a reliable standard, creating an incomplete migration flow table of harmonized values. Cells for which no reliable reported flows exist are then estimated from a negative binomial regression model fitted by using an expectation–maximization (EM) type of algorithm. Covariate information for this model is drawn from international migration theory. Finally, measures of precision for all missing cell estimates are derived by using the supplemented EM algorithm. Recent data on international migration between countries in Europe are used to illustrate the methodology. The results represent a complete table of comparable flows which can be used by regional policy makers and social scientists to understand population behaviour and change better.

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  • Guy J. Abel, 2010. "Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 797-825, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:173:y:2010:i:4:p:797-825
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00636.x
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    1. Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi, 2023. "Human capital mobility patterns in the European Union and the financial crisis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1791-1820, April.
    2. Demirel, Duygun Fatih & Basak, Melek, 2019. "A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    4. Hicran Celikyay, 2017. "The Studies Through Smart Cities Model:The Case of Istanbul," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 149-163, January.
    5. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    6. Del Fava, Emanuele & Wiśniowsk, Arkadiusz & Zagheni, Emilio, 2019. "Modelling International Migration Flows by Integrating Multiple Data Sources," SocArXiv cma5h, Center for Open Science.
    7. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W. F. Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer, 2016. "Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 1007-1024, October.
    8. Jonathan Azose & Adrian Raftery, 2015. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1627-1650, October.
    9. Jack DeWaard, 2013. "Compositional and Temporal Dynamics of International Migration in the EU/EFTA: A New Metric for Assessing Countries’ Immigration and Integration Policies," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 249-295, June.
    10. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Combining Labour Force Survey data to estimate migration flows: the case of migration from Poland to the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(1), pages 185-202, January.
    11. Jack DeWaard & Keuntae Kim & James Raymer, 2012. "Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1307-1333, November.
    12. Guy J. Abel, 2015. "Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender Between 1960 and 2010," VID Working Papers 1505, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    13. Adam Crymble & Adam Dennett & Tim Hitchcock, 2018. "Modelling regional imbalances in English plebeian migration to late eighteenth‐century London†," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(3), pages 747-771, August.
    14. Fatih Cakmak & Erkan Oktay, 2017. "Research of Internal Migration by Compartment Models: The Case of Erzurum-Bursa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 127-148, January.
    15. Auer, Daniel & Tetlow, Daniel, 2020. "Brexit, collective uncertainty and migration decisions," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2020-102, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    16. Jack DeWaard & Jasmine Trang Ha & James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 33-53, February.
    17. James Raymer & Joop Beer & Rob Erf, 2011. "Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration amongst Countries in the EU/EFTA, 2002–2007," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 185-215, May.
    18. Agnieszka Fihel & Anna Janicka & Marek Okólski, 2023. "Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing," Post-Print hal-04488199, HAL.
    19. Wiśniowski Arkadiusz & Bijak Jakub & Forster Jonathan J. & Raymer James & Smith Peter W.F. & Christiansen Solveig & Keilman Nico, 2013. "Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(4), pages 583-607, December.

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