IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v52y2015i5p1627-1650.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Azose
  • Adrian Raftery

Abstract

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Azose & Adrian Raftery, 2015. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1627-1650, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:5:p:1627-1650
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guy J. Abel, 2010. "Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 797-825, October.
    2. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," NBER Working Papers 9159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    4. Guy Abel & Jakub Bijak & Jonathan J. Forster & James Raymer & Peter W.F. Smith & Jackie S.T. Wong, 2013. "Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(43), pages 1187-1226.
    5. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    6. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
    7. Peter Congdon, 2010. "Random‐effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 755-774, October.
    8. James Raymer & Andrei Rogers, 2007. "Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 199-223, May.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    10. Ševčíková, Hana & Alkema, Leontine & Raftery, Adrian, 2011. "bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i01).
    11. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.
    12. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Avramescu & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2021. "Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(40), pages 1219-1254.
    2. Demirel, Duygun Fatih & Basak, Melek, 2019. "A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    5. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    6. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Guy Abel, 2018. "Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(54), pages 1635-1662.
    8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios Yannacopoulos, 2022. "A general framework for the generation of probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios and risk quantification concerning food security with application in the Upper Nile river basin," DEOS Working Papers 2203, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    10. Lucie Kurekova, 2022. "Regional migration and the dimension of distance in empirical analysis," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 11(2), pages 80-91, November.
    11. Frans Willekens, 2018. "Towards causal forecasting of international migration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 199-218.
    12. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    13. Trond Husby & Hans Visser, 2021. "Short- to medium-run forecasting of mobility with dynamic linear models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(28), pages 871-902.
    14. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," Papers 2312.04428, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    15. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    16. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.
    17. Hélène Benveniste & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Matthew Gidden & Raya Muttarak, 2021. "Tracing international migration in projections of income and inequality across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-22, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    2. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
    3. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.
    4. Michael Pearce & Adrian E. Raftery, 2021. "Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(52), pages 1271-1294.
    5. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," Papers 2312.04428, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    6. Carl P. Schmertmann & Marcos R. Gonzaga, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1363-1388, August.
    7. David J Sharrow & Samuel J Clark & Adrian E Raftery, 2014. "Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    8. Heinz Stefan, 2014. "Uncertainty quantification of world population growth: A self-similar PDF model," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 261-277, December.
    9. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Meng Xu & Helge Brunborg & Joel E. Cohen, 2017. "Evaluating multi-regional population projections with Taylor’s law of mean–variance scaling and its generalisation," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, March.
    12. Demirel, Duygun Fatih & Basak, Melek, 2019. "A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios Yannacopoulos, 2022. "A general framework for the generation of probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios and risk quantification concerning food security with application in the Upper Nile river basin," DEOS Working Papers 2203, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    14. Bailey Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(35), pages 1011-1034.
    15. Niall Newsham & Francisco Rowe, 2021. "Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-261, April.
    16. Vanella, Patrizio, 2016. "The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-579, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    17. Dunstan Kim & Ball Christopher, 2016. "Demographic Projections: User and Producer Experiences of Adopting a Stochastic Approach," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 947-962, December.
    18. Patrizio Vanella & Philipp Deschermeier & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, September.
    19. de Arce, Rafael & Mahia, Ramon, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey," MPRA Paper 14547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Petreski Marjan & Petreski Blagica & Tumanoska Despina & Narazani Edlira & Kazazi Fatush & Ognjanov Galjina & Jankovic Irena & Mustafa Arben & Kochovska Tereza, 2017. "The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process," Comparative Southeast European Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 65(4), pages 679-695, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:5:p:1627-1650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.