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Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models

Author

Listed:
  • Guy Abel

    (University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Background: Little attention is given to the role of migration in global population projection models. Most demographers set future levels of net migration on trajectories towards zero in all countries, nullifying the impact of migration on long-run projected populations. Yet as fertility and mortality rates fall, the role of migration on future population change is becoming more pronounced. Objective: In this paper we develop future long-run migration scenarios to provide a range of possible outcomes. Methods: Our alternative migration scenarios are linked to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), widely used in research on global environmental change. These are utilized as inputs for a global cohort component projection model to obtain population totals up until 2100 for all countries. Contribution: The results illustrate the important role of migration assumptions in long run projections, especially in post demographic transition countries. Further, they provide plausible alternatives to projections based on the commonly used, but poorly justified, convergence to the zero net migration assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy Abel, 2018. "Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(54), pages 1635-1662.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:38:y:2018:i:54
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    8. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aral, Mustafa M., 2020. "Knowledge based analysis of continental population and migration dynamics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Marion Borderon & Patrick Sakdapolrak & Raya Muttarak & Endale Kebede & Raffaella Pagogna & Eva Sporer, 2019. "Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(18), pages 491-544.
    3. Lucas Kluge & Orlando Olaya-Bucaro & Samir KC & Dilek Yildiz & Guy Abel & Jacob Schewe, 2024. "A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(11), pages 323-376.
    4. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Venla Niva & Alexander Horton & Vili Virkki & Matias Heino & Maria Kosonen & Marko Kallio & Pekka Kinnunen & Guy J. Abel & Raya Muttarak & Maija Taka & Olli Varis & Matti Kummu, 2023. "World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 2023-2037, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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