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A Participatory Scenario Framework Advances Ecosystem Scenarios as Environmental Futures Approach

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  • Ludwig Weh

Abstract

Ecosystem scenarios describe possible, probable and desirable developments of the natural environment in the future, often assessed from a natural scientific (biophysical) and social scientific (socioeconomic) perspective. Processing relevant systemic and human behavioral parameters as scenario factors or drivers, different frameworks for ecosystem scenario building have been developed, applied, and evaluated in scientific literature. Increasingly, stakeholder participation has proven a central objective and challenge for these frameworks defining process designs in transdisciplinary domains such as science‐society or science‐policy interfaces. This article presents a conceptual framework to advance ecosystem scenario projects towards improved stakeholder participation, knowledge inclusivity and process reflexivity. The framework combines epistemological and methodological elements from futures studies with established research practices in ecosystem assessment projects. The framework's dynamic, adaptive character adds deliberative and reflexive elements to process design and application for a more inclusive and stakeholder‐oriented research practice. Its novelty lies in the continuous configuration of process variables derived from common dichotomous elements of theoretical scenario classification applied in scenario practice. This approach benefits integrated knowledge management and inclusivity within the framework for multi‐method, multi‐stakeholder, multi‐sector and multi‐epistemic scenario processes. In a wider scope of environmental futures approaches, this article details the development, conceptual outline and preliminary application of the participatory framework for testing and evaluation in an ongoing ecosystem scenario project.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig Weh, 2025. "A Participatory Scenario Framework Advances Ecosystem Scenarios as Environmental Futures Approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:7:y:2025:i:2:n:e70005
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian C. O’Neill & Timothy R. Carter & Kristie Ebi & Paula A. Harrison & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Kasper Kok & Elmar Kriegler & Benjamin L. Preston & Keywan Riahi & Jana Sillmann & Bas J. Ruijven & Detlef, 2021. "Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 274-274, March.
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    3. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    4. Marina Andrijevic & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tabea Lissner & Raya Muttarak & Keywan Riahi & Emily Theokritoff & Adelle Thomas & Nicole Maanen & Edward Byers, 2023. "Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(8), pages 778-787, August.
    5. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    6. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
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    1. Hanna Heino & Leena Jokinen & Riikka Saarimaa, 2025. "Futures Research Methods as Tools to Navigate in a Turbulent World," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), August.

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