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Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Author

Listed:
  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (University of Denver
    Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Timothy R. Carter

    (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

  • Kristie Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Paula A. Harrison

    (UK Centre of Ecology & Hydrology)

  • Eric Kemp-Benedict

    (Stockholm Environment Institute)

  • Kasper Kok

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Benjamin L. Preston

    (RAND Corporation)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Jana Sillmann

    (Center for International Climate Research (CICERO))

  • Bas J. Ruijven

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
    Utrecht University)

  • David Carlisle

    (University of Denver)

  • Cecilia Conde

    (National Autonomous University of Mexico (CCA-UNAM))

  • Jan Fuglestvedt

    (Center for International Climate Research (CICERO))

  • Carole Green

    (University of Denver)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Ritsumeikan University)

  • Julia Leininger

    (German Development Institute)

  • Seth Monteith

    (ClimateWorks Foundation)

  • Ramon Pichs-Madruga

    (Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM))

Abstract

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian C. O’Neill & Timothy R. Carter & Kristie Ebi & Paula A. Harrison & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Kasper Kok & Elmar Kriegler & Benjamin L. Preston & Keywan Riahi & Jana Sillmann & Bas J. Ruijven & Detlef, 2020. "Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1074-1084, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00952-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
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