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Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo

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  • Clancy, Damian
  • Tanner, Jason E.
  • McWilliam, Stephen
  • Spencer, Matthew

Abstract

Coral reefs are threatened ecosystems, so it is important to have predictive models of their dynamics. Most current models of coral reefs fall into two categories. The first is simple heuristic models which provide an abstract understanding of the possible behaviour of reefs in general, but do not describe real reefs. The second is complex simulations whose parameters are obtained from a range of sources such as literature estimates. We cannot estimate the parameters of these models from a single data set, and we have little idea of the uncertainty in their predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Clancy, Damian & Tanner, Jason E. & McWilliam, Stephen & Spencer, Matthew, 2010. "Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(10), pages 1337-1347.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:10:p:1337-1347
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter J. Mumby & Alan Hastings & Helen J. Edwards, 2007. "Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs," Nature, Nature, vol. 450(7166), pages 98-101, November.
    2. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June.
    3. J. Timothy Wootton, 2001. "Local interactions predict large-scale pattern in empirically derived cellular automata," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6858), pages 841-844, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Melbourne-Thomas, J. & Johnson, C.R. & Fulton, E.A., 2011. "Characterizing sensitivity and uncertainty in a multiscale model of a complex coral reef system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3320-3334.
    2. Gao, Yuan & Wang, Jinman & Zhang, Min & Li, Sijia, 2021. "Measurement and prediction of land use conflict in an opencast mining area," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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    4. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    5. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Chen, Rui, 2014. "A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov-CA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 1-7.

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