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Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2018. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 945-993, July.
  2. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 16, July-Dece.
  3. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2014. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1661-1716.
  4. Rosen Valchev & Nicolas Vincent & Cosmin Ilut, 2014. "Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty," 2014 Meeting Papers 716, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Stefano d¡¦Addona, 2018. "Rational Ignorance in Long-run Risk Models," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 17(1), pages 43-54, June.
  6. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Marinacci, Massimo, 2015. "Decision analysis under ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(3), pages 823-836.
  7. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 15-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Epstein Larry G & Seo Kyoungwon, 2011. "Symmetry or Dynamic Consistency?," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, June.
  9. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "The Tail That Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 2839-2879.
  10. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
  11. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 220-237, October.
  12. Hassan Afrouzi & Laura Veldkamp, 2019. "Biased Inflation Forecasts," 2019 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Michael Johannes & Lars Lochstoer & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2015. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," 2015 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Aurelien Baillon & Olivier L'Haridon & Laetitia Placido, 2011. "Ambiguity Models and the Machina Paradoxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1547-1560, June.
  15. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
  16. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
  18. Buss, Adrian & Dumas, Bernard & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2016. "The intended and unintended consequences of financial-market regulations: A general-equilibrium analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-43.
  19. Laurent-Emmanuel Calvet & Veronika Czellar, 2011. "State-Observation Sampling and the Econometrics of Learning Models," Working Papers hal-00625500, HAL.
  20. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Lex Borghans & Bart H. H. Golsteyn & James J. Heckman & Huub Meijers, 2009. "Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Ambiguity Aversion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 649-658, 04-05.
  22. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, January.
  23. Zhengyuan Gao & Christian M. Hafner, 2019. "Looking Backward and Looking Forward," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, June.
  24. Zhongjun Qu, 2018. "A Composite Likelihood Framework for Analyzing Singular DSGE Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 916-932, December.
  25. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
  26. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2011. "Robustness and ambiguity in continuous time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1195-1223, May.
  27. Lars P. Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2016. "Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Hill, Brian & Michalski, Tomasz, 2018. "Risk versus ambiguity and international security design," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 74-105.
  29. Brian Lucey & Colm KEarney & Ciaran MacAnBhaird, 2012. "Culture and capital structure in small and medium sized firms," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp419, IIIS.
  30. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and uncertainty premia," Working Papers 12-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, revised 2012.
  31. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Bernard Salanié & François Salanié & Amit Gandhi, 2019. "From Aggregate Betting Data to Individual Risk Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 1-36, January.
  32. Angel Asensio, 2012. "On Keynes’s Seminal Innovation and Related Essential Features: Revisiting the Notion of Equilibrium in The General Theory," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.),Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  33. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Potì, Valerio & Levich, Richard M. & Pattitoni, Pierpaolo & Cucurachi, Paolo, 2014. "Predictability, trading rule profitability and learning in currency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 117-129.
  35. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
  36. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
  37. Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Elicitation of ambiguous beliefs with mixing bets," Papers 1902.07447, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
  38. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
  39. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
  40. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2012. "Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 431-478, April.
  41. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
  42. Calvet, Laurent E. & Czellar, Veronika, 2015. "Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 343-358.
  43. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Prices when Beliefs are Tenuous," NBER Working Papers 25781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2010. "Is Credit Event Risk Priced? Modeling Contagion via the Updating of Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 15733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Cerreia-Vioglio, S. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M. & Montrucchio, L., 2011. "Uncertainty averse preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1275-1330, July.
  46. Raman Uppal & Harjoat Bhamra, 2016. "Do Individual Behavioral Biases Affect Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1358, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  47. Eran Hanany & Peter Klibanoff & Sujoy Mukerji, 2020. "Incomplete Information Games with Ambiguity Averse Players," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 135-187, May.
  48. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2018. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 945-993, July.
  49. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2016. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan," Working Papers 16-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  50. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2011. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," NBER Working Papers 16764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2018. "On the computation of detection error probabilities under normality assumptions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 106-109.
  53. Jeong, Daehee & Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Joon Y., 2015. "Does ambiguity matter? Estimating asset pricing models with a multiple-priors recursive utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 361-382.
  54. repec:pri:metric:wp033_2012_hansen_borovicka_hendricks_scheinkman_risk%20price%20dynamics. is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
  56. Jianjun Miao & Bin Wei & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Variance Premium," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-36, June.
  57. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2015, September.
  58. Lars Peter Hansen, 2011. "Comment on "House Price Booms and the Current Account"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 132-143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2016. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 230-266, July.
  60. Lars Peter Hansen, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 479-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2009. "The role of beliefs in inference for rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 322-331, June.
  62. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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