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From aggregate betting data to individual risk preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre-Andre Chiappori

    (Department of Economics - University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim)

  • Bernard Salanie

    (Department of Economics - University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim)

  • Francois Salanie

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Amit Gandhi

    (Department of Economics - University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim)

Abstract

We show that even in the absence of data on individual decisions, the distribution of individual attitudes towards risk can be identified from the aggregate conditions that characterize equilibrium on markets for risky assets. Taking parimutuel horse races as a textbook model of contingent markets, we allow for heterogeneous bettors with very general risk preferences, including non-expected utility. Under a standard single-crossing condition on preferences, we identify the distribution of preferences among the population of bettors and we derive testable implications. We estimate the model on data from U.S. races. Specifications based on expected utility fit the data very poorly. Our results stress the crucial importance of nonlinear probability weighting. They also suggest that several dimensions of heterogeneity may be at work.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie & Francois Salanie & Amit Gandhi, 2019. "From aggregate betting data to individual risk preferences," Post-Print hal-02121859, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02121859
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA11165
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    Cited by:

    1. Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2018. "It takes all sorts: A heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 556-569.
    2. Keith Marzilli Ericson & Philipp Kircher & Johannes Spinnewijn & Amanda Starc, 2021. "Inferring Risk Perceptions and Preferences Using Choice from Insurance Menus: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 713-744.
    3. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & Juan Pablo Gama & Rodrigo Novinski, 2018. "General Equilibrium With Uncertainty Loving Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1859-1871, September.
    4. Agostino Capponi & Zhaoyu Zhang, 2020. "Risk Preferences and Efficiency of Household Portfolios," Papers 2010.13928, arXiv.org.
    5. Shingo Ishiguro & Sultan Mehmood & Avner Seror & Daniel Chen, 2024. "Addiction and Illegal Markets," Working Papers hal-04792970, HAL.
    6. Apesteguia, Jose & Ballester, Miguel A., 2023. "Random utility models with ordered types and domains," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    7. Tyler Abbot, 2017. "General Equilibrium Under Convex Portfolio Constraints and Heterogeneous Risk Preferences," Papers 1706.05877, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    8. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari & Matthew Thirkettle, 2021. "Discrete Choice under Risk with Limited Consideration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1972-2006, June.
    9. Levon Barseghyan & Maura Coughlin & Francesca Molinari & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2021. "Heterogeneous Choice Sets and Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2015-2048, September.
    10. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Alex Gershkov & Benny Moldovanu & Philipp Strack & Mengxi Zhang, 2023. "Optimal Insurance: Dual Utility, Random Losses and Adverse Selection," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 242, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    12. Hiroaki Hanyu & Shunsuke Ishii & Suguru Otani & Kazuhiro Teramoto, 2025. "Are Final Market Prices Sufficient for Information Aggregation? Evidence from Last-Minute Dynamics in Parimutuel Betting," Papers 2509.14645, arXiv.org.
    13. Andrew Grant & Oh Kang Kwon & Steve Satchell, 2024. "Properties of risk aversion estimated from portfolio weights," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 427-444, September.
    14. Nikhil Agarwal & Paulo Somaini, 2018. "Demand Analysis Using Strategic Reports: An Application to a School Choice Mechanism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 391-444, March.
    15. Richard Gonzalez & George Wu, 2022. "Composition rules in original and cumulative prospect theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 647-675, April.
    16. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari, 2023. "Risk Preference Types, Limited Consideration, and Welfare," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 1011-1029, October.
    17. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2020. "Transparency in Structural Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 711-722, October.

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