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Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2020. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8168, CESifo.
  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2008. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 353-394, March.
  3. Nicholas Seybert & Robert Bloomfield, 2009. "Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 738-751, May.
  4. Chesney, Thomas & Chuah, Swee-Hoon & Hoffmann, Robert, 2009. "Virtual world experimentation: An exploratory study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 618-635, October.
  5. Florian Zimmermann, 2015. "Clumped or Piecewise? Evidence on Preferences for Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 740-753, April.
  6. Etchart-Vincent, Nathalie, 2007. "Expérimentation de laboratoire et économie : contre quelques idées reçues et faux problèmes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(1), pages 91-116, mars.
  7. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets In The Laboratory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 589-603, July.
  9. Waller, William S. & Shapiro, Brian & Sevcik, Galen, 1999. "Do cost-based pricing biases persist in laboratory markets?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 717-739, November.
  10. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
  11. Colin Camerer, 1998. "Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(2), pages 163-183, September.
  12. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine, 2012. "Faith in intuition and behavioral biases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 182-192.
  13. Richard Zeckhauser & Jayendu Patel & Darryll Hendricks, 1991. "Nonrational Actors and Financial Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Rotheli, Tobias F., 1998. "Pattern recognition and procedurally rational expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 71-90, September.
  16. Ackert, Lucy F. & Kluger, Brian D. & Qi, Li, 2012. "Irrationality and beliefs in a laboratory asset market: Is it me or is it you?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 278-291.
  17. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2013. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4483, CESifo.
  18. Jason F. Shogren, 2002. "Micromotives in Global Environmental Policy," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(5), pages 47-61, October.
  19. Annarita Colasante & Aurora García-Gallego & Andrea Morone & Tiziana Temerario, 2017. "The utopia of cooperation: does intra-group competition drive out free riding?," Working Papers 2017/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  20. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Shehata, Mohamed, 1997. "Market behavior in the presence of costly, imperfect information: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-74, May.
  21. Dargnies, Marie-Pierre & Hakimov, Rustamdjan & Kübler, Dorothea, 2019. "Self-Confidence and Unraveling in Matching Markets," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 5603-5618.
  22. Nunnari, Salvatore & Zapal, Jan, 2016. "Gambler's fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 275-294.
  23. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-332.
  24. Mayhew, Brian W. & Vitalis, Adam, 2014. "Myopic loss aversion and market experience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-125.
  25. Evans, Dorla A, 1997. "The Role of Markets in Reducing Expected Utility Violations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 622-636, June.
  26. Daniel E. O’Leary, 2011. "The Emergence of Individual Knowledge in a Group Setting: Mitigating Cognitive Fallacies," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 3-18, January.
  27. Pedro Robalo & Rei S. Sayag, 2012. "Information at a Cost: A Lab Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-143/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
  28. Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2011. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 1102, Xiamen Unversity, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Finance and Economics Experimental Laboratory, revised 14 Apr 2011.
  29. He, Xue Dong & Xiao, Di, 2017. "Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 90-104.
  30. Feduzi, Alberto & Runde, Jochen, 2014. "Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach to management decision-making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 268-283.
  31. Boris Maciejovsky & Matthias Sutter & David V. Budescu & Patrick Bernau, 2013. "Teams Make You Smarter: How Exposure to Teams Improves Individual Decisions in Probability and Reasoning Tasks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1255-1270, June.
  32. Floris Heukelom, 2007. "Who are the Behavioral Economists and what do they say?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-020/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  33. Brown, Paul M., 1995. "Learning from experience, reference points, and decision costs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 381-399, August.
  34. Offerman, Theo & Sonnemans, Joep, 1998. "Learning by experience and learning by imitating successful others," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 559-575, March.
  35. Gneezy, U. & Das, J.W.M., 1996. "Experimental Investigation of Percieved Risk in Random Walk Processes," Discussion Paper 1996-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  36. Weber, Martin & Keppe, Hans-Jurgen & Meyer-Delius, Gabriela, 2000. "The impact of endowment framing on market prices -- an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 159-176, February.
  37. Füllbrunn, Sascha & Rau, Holger A. & Weitzel, Utz, 2014. "Does ambiguity aversion survive in experimental asset markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 810-826.
  38. Daniel Read & Yael Grushka-Cockayne, 2007. "The Similarity Heuristic," Working Papers 2007_09, Durham University Business School.
  39. Alexander Coutts, 2019. "Good news and bad news are still news: experimental evidence on belief updating," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 369-395, June.
  40. Füllbrunn, Sascha & Rau, Holger & Weitzel, Utz, 2013. "Do ambiguity effects survive in experimental asset markets?," MPRA Paper 44700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Bruno Biais & Martin Weber, 2009. "Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1018-1029, June.
  42. Hales, Jeffrey, 2009. "Are investors really willing to agree to disagree? An experimental investigation of how disagreement and attention to disagreement affect trading behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 230-241, March.
  43. Gneezy, U., 1996. "Probability Judgements in Multi-Stage Problems : Experimental Evidence of Systematic Biases," Discussion Paper 1996-01, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  44. Farjam, Mike & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2018. "Bubbles in hybrid markets: How expectations about algorithmic trading affect human trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 248-269.
  45. Chewning, Eugene Jr. & Coller, Maribeth & Tuttle, Brad, 2004. "Do market prices reveal the decision models of sophisticated investors?: Evidence from the laboratory," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 739-758, November.
  46. Burton, F. Greg & Coller, Maribeth & Tuttle, Brad, 2006. "Market responses to qualitative information from a group polarization perspective," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 107-127, February.
  47. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
  48. David V. Budescu & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "The Effect of Payoff Feedback and Information Pooling on Reasoning Errors: Evidence from Experimental Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1829-1843, December.
  49. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2017. "Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 40, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  50. Slembeck, Tilman & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2004. "Do institutions promote rationality?: An experimental study of the three-door anomaly," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-350, July.
  51. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer, 2014. "Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 923-938, April.
  52. Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "How do Markets React to Fundamental Shocks? An Experimental Analysis on Underreaction and Momentum," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-42, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  53. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2009. "Is the lure of choice reflected in market prices? Experimental evidence based on the 4-door Monty Hall problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 203-215, April.
  54. Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Stefan, Matthias, 2014. "Experimental evidence on varying uncertainty and skewness in laboratory double-auction markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 798-809.
  55. Robalo, Pedro & Sayag, Rei, 2018. "Paying is believing: The effect of costly information on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 114-125.
  56. Frey, Bruno S. & Gallus, Jana, 2014. "Aggregate effects of behavioral anomalies: A new research area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-15.
  57. Bloomfield, Robert & Libby, Robert & Nelson, Mark W., 2000. "Underreactions, overreactions and moderated confidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 113-137, May.
  58. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
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  61. Cherry, Todd L. & Crocker, Thomas D. & Shogren, Jason F., 2003. "Rationality spillovers," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 63-84, January.
  62. Paich, Mark. & Sterman, John., 1992. "Boom, bust and failures to learn in experimental markets," Working papers 3441-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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