Inefficiency in Earnings Forecasts: Experimental Evidence of Reactions to Positive vs. Negative Information
Prior archival studies of analysts' forecasts have found evidence for systematic underreaction, systematic overreaction, and systematic optimism bias. Easterwood and Nutt (1999) attempt to reconcile the conflicting evidence by testing the robustness of Abarbanell and Bernard's (1992) underreaction results to the nature of the information. Consistent with systematic optimism, forecasts are found to underreact to negative earnings information but overreact to positive information. However, Easterwood and Nutt are unable to distinguish between misreaction caused by incentives unique to analysts with misreaction caused by human decision bias that may be typical of investors. We address this issue by analyzing forecast reactions to positive versus negative information in the controlled experimental setting of Gillette, Stevens, Watts, and Williams (1999). The forecast data reveal systematic underreaction to both positive and negative information, and the underreaction is generally greater for positive information than negative information. This suggests that prior empirical evidence of forecast overreaction to positive information is unlikely to be attributable to human decision bias. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
- David Hirshleifer, 2001.
"Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997.
"A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
- Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002.
"A Survey of Behavioral Finance,"
NBER Working Papers
9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Libby, Robert & Bloomfield, Robert & Nelson, Mark W., 2002. "Experimental research in financial accounting," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 775-810, November.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, et al, 1993.
"Tests of Rational Expectations in a Stark Setting,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 586-601, May.
- O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
- Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
- Ganguly, Ananda R. & Kagel, John H. & Moser, Donald V., 1994. "The effects of biases in probability judgments on market prices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 675-700, November.
- Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
- Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
- Williams, Arlington W, 1987. "The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Biggs, Stanley F., 1984. "Financial analysts' information search in the assessment of corporate earning power," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 313-323, October.
- John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
- Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:expeco:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:75-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.