IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v18y2013i2d10.1007_s11142-012-9219-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Removing predictable analyst forecast errors to improve implied cost of equity estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Partha Mohanram

    (Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto)

  • Dan Gode

    (New York University)

Abstract

Prior research documents a weak association between the implied cost of equity inferred from analyst forecasts and realized returns. It points to predictable errors in analyst forecasts as a possible cause. We show that removing predictable errors from analyst forecasts leads to a much stronger association between implied cost of equity estimates obtained from adjusted forecasts and realized returns after controlling for cash flow news and discount rate news. An estimate of implied risk premium based on the average of four commonly used methods after making adjustments for predictable errors exhibits strong correlations with future realized returns as well as the lowest measurement error. Overall, our results confirm the validity of implied cost of equity estimates as measures of expected returns. Future research using implied cost of equity should remove predictable errors from implied cost of capital estimates and then average across multiple metrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Partha Mohanram & Dan Gode, 2013. "Removing predictable analyst forecast errors to improve implied cost of equity estimates," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 443-478, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:18:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-012-9219-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-012-9219-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-012-9219-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-012-9219-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:18:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-012-9219-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.