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The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Görtz, Christoph & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Tsoukalas, John D., 2023. "Firms’ financing dynamics around lumpy capacity adjustments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  2. Macnamara, Patrick, 2019. "Taxes and financial frictions: Implications for corporate capital structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-100.
  3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  4. Shouyong Shi & Christine Tewfik, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Investment Delay, and Asset Market Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 155-196, June.
  5. Enzo Dia & Fabrizio Casalin, 2013. "Security issuance and the business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1751-1761.
  6. Xing Guo, 2020. "Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation," Staff Working Papers 20-17, Bank of Canada.
  7. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-51.
  8. Huang-Meier, Winifred & Freeman, Mark C., 2015. "Aggregate dividends and consumption smoothing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 324-335.
  9. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
  10. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "How Cyclical Is Bank Capital?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 27-38, August.
  11. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2017. "Firm size, economic risks, and the cross-section of international stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 110-126.
  12. Nebosja Dimic & Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Internationalization and firm valuation: New evidence from first offshore bond issuances of US firms," Working Papers on Finance 1803, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  13. Hacıoğlu-Hoke, Sinem, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
  14. Ahrends, Meike & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Puhan, Tatjana Xenia, 2018. "Cyclicality of growth opportunities and the value of cash holdings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 74-96.
  15. Hyun, Junghwan, 2016. "Financial crises and the evolution of credit reallocation: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 25-34.
  16. Chen, Zhiyao & Hackbarth, Dirk & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2022. "A unified model of distress risk puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 357-384.
  17. Guo, Kun & Bian, Yuan & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "ESG performance and corporate external financing in China: The role of rating disagreement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  18. Balli, Faruk & Agyemang, Abraham & Gregory-Allen, Russell & Ozer Balli, Hatice, 2022. "Corporate dividend smoothing: The role of cross-listing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  19. Shen, Junyan, 2023. "Capital misallocation and financial market frictions: Empirical evidence from equity cost of capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 486-504.
  20. Jan Starmans, 2023. "Technological Determinants of Financial Constraints," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3003-3024, May.
  21. Mathias Lé & Frédéric Vinas, 2020. "The Financing of Investment: Firm Size, Asset Tangibility and the Size of Investment," Working papers 777, Banque de France.
  22. Yasin Mimir, 2016. "Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(1), pages 42-74, February.
  23. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Asset Bubbles and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 315-348, April.
  24. Hyun, Junghwan, 2018. "The dynamics of credit reallocation: South Korea's post-crisis experience," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 57-70.
  25. Jesse Perla & Carolin Pflueger & Michal Szkup, 2020. "Doubling Down on Debt: Limited Liability as a Financial Friction," NBER Working Papers 27747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
  27. Giovannini, Alessandro & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Public and private risk sharing: friends or foes? The interplay between different forms of risk sharing," Occasional Paper Series 295, European Central Bank.
  28. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks to Large Banks’ Capital," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 546-569, August.
  29. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  30. Pietro Grandi & Jean Belin & Elisa Darriet & Marianne Guille, 2024. "SMEs, R &D financing, and credit shocks," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 325-347, June.
  31. Gabriel Züllig & Valentin Grob, 2024. "Corporate leverage and the effects of monetary policy on investment: a reconciliation of micro and macro elasticities," Working Papers 2024-08, Swiss National Bank.
  32. Jing Yang & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Bank stock returns, leverage and the business cycle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  33. Marc Arnold & Dirk Hackbarth & Tatjana Xenia Puhan, 2018. "Financing Asset Sales and Business Cycles [Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 243-277.
  34. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2010. "Credit Risk and Business Cycles," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-033, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  35. Pegoraro, Stefano & Montagna, Mattia, 2021. "Issuance and valuation of corporate bonds with quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2520, European Central Bank.
  36. Karpavičius, Sigitas & Yu, Fan, 2017. "The impact of interest rates on firms' financing policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 262-293.
  37. Hill, Brian & Michalski, Tomasz, 2018. "Risk versus ambiguity and international security design," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 74-105.
  38. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2014. "Asymmetric adjustment toward optimal capital structure: Evidence from a crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-242.
  39. Amilcar A. Menichini, 2025. "Risk-free vs risky components of debt," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1539-1570, November.
  40. Hull, Tyler J., 2015. "How the timing of dividend reductions can signal value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 114-131.
  41. David Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
  42. Lee, Dong Wook & Shin, Hyun-Han & Stulz, Rene M., 2016. "Why Does Capital No Longer Flow More to the Industries with the Best Growth Opportunities?," Working Paper Series 2016-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  43. Florian Gerth, 2017. "Allocative efficiency of UK firms during the Great Recession," Studies in Economics 1714, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  44. Vo, Duc Hong & Tran, Minh Phuoc-Bao, 2024. "Volatility spillovers between energy and agriculture markets during the ongoing food & energy crisis: Does uncertainty from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
  45. Efraim Benmelech & Nitish Kumar & Raghuram Rajan, 2024. "The Decline of Secured Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 35-93, February.
  46. Liu, Jia, 2013. "Fixed investment, liquidity, and access to capital markets: New evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 189-201.
  47. Barattieri, Alessandro & Moretti, Laura & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2021. "Banks funding, leverage, and investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 148-171.
  48. Erwan Quintin & Dean Corbae, 2016. "Asset Quality Dynamics," 2016 Meeting Papers 418, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  49. Alex Edmans & William Mann, 2019. "Financing Through Asset Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3043-3060, July.
  50. Pesce, Simone & Errico, Marco & Pollio, Luigi, 2025. "Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in firms response to aggregate fluctuations: what can we learn from machine learning?," Working Paper Series 3107, European Central Bank.
  51. Gomes, Pedro & Seoane, Hernán D., 2024. "Made in Europe: Monetary–Fiscal policy mix with financial frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  52. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
  53. Chiarella Carl & Di Guilmi Corrado, 2012. "The Fiscal Cost of Financial Instability," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-29, October.
  54. Nikolov, Kalin, 2014. "Collateral amplification under complete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-93.
  55. Tetiana Davydiuk & Scott Richard & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2023. "How Risky Are U.S. Corporate Assets?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 141-208, February.
  56. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Muir, Tyler, 2016. "Aggregate external financing and savings waves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 116-133.
  57. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2013. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 528-555.
  58. Alex Clymo & Filip Rozsypal, 2022. "Firm Cyclicality and Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers 2207, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  59. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Hsieh, Yi-Shan, 2021. "Leverage dynamics over the business cycle: Evidence from Taiwan listed and unlisted firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 373-391.
  60. repec:bjc:journl:v:8:y:2021:i:1:p:05-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Katagiri, Mitsuru, 2014. "A macroeconomic approach to corporate capital structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 79-94.
  62. Hess, Dieter & Immenkötter, Philipp, 2011. "Optimal leverage, its benefits, and the business cycle," CFR Working Papers 11-12, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  63. Giacomo Rodano & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde & Emanuele Tarantino, 2018. "Lending Standards over the Credit Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2943-2982.
  64. Chang, Xin & Chen, Yunling & Dasgupta, Sudipto, 2019. "Macroeconomic conditions, financial constraints, and firms’ financing decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 242-255.
  65. Joachim Jungherr, 2012. "Financial Amplification, Executive Compensation, and Optimal Capital Structure," 2012 Meeting Papers 933, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  66. Duan, Ran, 2023. "Patent trolls and capital structure decisions in high-tech firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  67. Frédéric Vinas, 2025. "Oil Shocks and their Impact on Corporate Profitability, Productivity, and Credit Risk: Firm-Level Evidence Over Two Decades," Working papers 989, Banque de France.
  68. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
  69. Joost Bats, 2020. "Corporates dependence on banks: The impact of ECB corporate sector purchases," Working Papers 667, DNB.
  70. Elizabeth Jane Casabianca & Alessia Lo Turco & Daniela Maggioni, 2021. "Migration And The Structure Of Manufacturing Production. A View From Italian Provinces," Working Papers 448, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  71. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2019. "What Goliaths and Davids among Swiss firms tell us about expected returns on Swiss asset markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-17, December.
  72. Krainer, Robert E., 2023. "Financial contracting as behavior towards risk: The corporate finance of business cycles 8/3/22," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  73. Kim P. Huynh & Teodora Paligorova & Robert Petrunia, 2018. "Debt financing in private and public firms," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 465-487, November.
  74. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.
  75. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 210-243, October.
  76. Tommaso Trani, 2012. "Countercyclical Capital Regulation and Bank Ownership Structure," IHEID Working Papers 14-2012, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  77. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Artur Tarassow, 2013. "A Macroeconometric Assessment of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201306, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  78. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Kai Li & Chi‐Yang Tsou, 2023. "The Pollution Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1343-1392, June.
  79. Shi, Shouyong, 2015. "Liquidity, assets and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 116-132.
  80. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  81. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Financial cycles in Europe: dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 551-583, May.
  82. Darmouni, Olivier & Siani, Kerry Y., 2025. "Bond market stimulus: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  83. Eskandari, Ruhollah & Zamanian, Morteza, 2022. "Cost of carry, financial constraints, and dynamics of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  84. Nikolov, Kalin, 2011. "A model of borrower reputation as intangible collateral," MPRA Paper 32939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  85. Gabriel Jiménez & Enrique Moral-Benito & Raquel Vegas, 2018. "Bank lending standards over the cycle: the role of firms’ productivity and credit risk," Working Papers 1811, Banco de España.
  86. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2021. "How common are credit-less recoveries? Firm-level evidence on the role of financial markets in crisis recovery," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  87. Emanuele Ciola & EDOARDO GAFFEO & Mauro Gallegati, 2018. "Matching frictions, credit reallocation and macroeconomic activity: how harmful are financial crises?," DEM Working Papers 2018/05, Department of Economics and Management.
  88. Thien Nguyen & Lukas Schmid & Howard Kung & Mariano Croce, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  89. Tan, Lin & Lu, Dong & Liu, Jiangtao, 2025. "Stay in hometown or go elsewhere: Clan culture and the cross-regional expansion of family firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  90. Smets, Frank & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Slow recoveries: Any role for corporate leverage?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 54-85.
  91. He, Yiyao, 2022. "Heterogeneous stock traders, endogenous bubbles, and economic fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  92. Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
  93. Döttling, Robin & Ratnovski, Lev, 2023. "Monetary policy and intangible investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 53-72.
  94. Francis, Johanna L. & Aykut, Dilek & Tereanu, Eugen, 2014. "The cost of private debt over the credit cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 146-181.
  95. Fabio Ghironi & Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Equity Sales and Manager Efficiency Across Firms and the Business Cycle," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  96. Ciola, Emanuele & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2022. "Search for profits and business fluctuations: How does banks’ behaviour explain cycles?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  97. Park, Jongho, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, equity financing, and business cycle amplifications," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  98. Wu, Yizhong & Liu, Xiaoxing & Tang, Chun, 2024. "Carbon Market and corporate financing behavior-From the perspective of constraints and demand," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 873-889.
  99. Filippo Ippolito & Alessandro Villa, 2022. "Levered Returns and Capital Structure Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP 2022-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  100. Acharya, Viral & Almeida, Heitor & Amihud, Yakov & Liu, Ping, 2021. "Efficiency or resiliency? Corporate choice between financial and operational hedging," CEPR Discussion Papers 15885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  101. Hu, Weiwei & Li, Kai & Xu, Yiming, 2023. "Leasing and the allocation efficiency of finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  102. Wang, Duo & Li, Yanxi & Hao, Zihan, 2025. "Adjustment of the presentation format of R&D expense and analyst forecasts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PF).
  103. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2012. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1262-1286, December.
  104. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
  105. Xiaodan Gao & Shaofeng Xu, 2018. "The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?," Staff Working Papers 18-59, Bank of Canada.
  106. Hu, Weiwei & Li, Kai & Xu, Yiming, 2024. "Lease-adjusted productivity measurement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  107. Hoang, Edward C. & Hoxha, Indrit, 2016. "Corporate payout smoothing: A variance decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-13.
  108. Di Nola, Alessandro, 2015. "Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 68289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  109. C. Bora Durdu & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Understanding Bank and Nonbank Credit Cycles: A Structural Exploration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 103-142, February.
  110. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2020. "Bank loan supply shocks and alternative financing of non‐financial corporations in the euro area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 126-150, September.
  111. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Hong-Xue & Wu, Shilei & Zhou, Fuyou, 2024. "Does local government debt management affect cross-border M&As? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  112. Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "Financing Lumpy Adjustment," Working Papers 2017_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  113. Emanuele Ciola & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2021. "Search for Profits and Business Fluctuations: How Banks' Behaviour Explain Cycles?," Working Papers 450, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  114. Mimir, Yasin, 2012. "Financial intermediaries, credit Shocks and business cycles," MPRA Paper 39648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  115. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  116. Joachim Jungherr & Immo Schott, 2021. "Optimal Debt Maturity and Firm Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 110-132, October.
  117. Zhiwei Xu & Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao, 2013. "A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles," 2013 Meeting Papers 167, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  118. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi & Jennifer A. O’Sullivan & Abdulaziz M. Alwathnani, 2018. "Business cycles, financial cycles and capital structure," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 105-123, February.
  119. Poeschl, Johannes, 2023. "Corporate debt maturity and investment over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
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