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Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles

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  • Yasin Mimir

Abstract

I document key business cycle facts of aggregate financial flows in the U.S. banking sector : (i) Bank credit, deposits and loan spread are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are more volatile, (ii) bank credit and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical, and (iii) financial variables lead the output fluctuations by one to three quarters. I then present an equilibrium real business cycle model with a financial sector, that is capable of matching these newly documented stylized facts. An agency problem between banks and their depositors induces endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households. Empirically-disciplined shocks to bank net worth alter the ability of banks to borrow and to extend credit to firms. I find that these financial shocks are important not only for explaining the dynamics of financial flows but also for the dynamics of standard macroeconomic aggregates. They play a major role in driving real fluctuations due to their impact on the tightness of bank capital constraint and the credit spread. The tightness measure of credit conditions in the model tracks the index of tightening credit standards constructed by the Federal Reserve Board quite well.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin Mimir, 2013. "Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles," Working Papers 1313, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1313
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Baglioni & E. Beccalli & A. Boitani & A. Monticini, 2013. "Is the leverage of European banks procyclical?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1251-1266, December.
    2. Yaprak Tavman, 2015. "A comparative analysis of macroprudential policies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 334-355.
    3. Eleni Iliopulos & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2012. "L'intermédiation financière dans l'analyse macroéconomique : le défi de la crise," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 91-130.
    4. Sanjay Chugh, 2016. "Firm Risk and Leverage-Based Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 111-131, April.
    5. Mimir Yasin & Sunel Enes & Taşkın Temel, 2013. "Required reserves as a credit policy tool," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-58, June.
    6. Hamed Ghiaie, 2017. "Credit Crunch On Financial Intermediary," THEMA Working Papers 2017-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    7. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0019-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:jimfin:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:44-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ahmet Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Managing short-term capital flows in new central banking: unconventional monetary policy framework in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 45-69, June.
    10. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner & Halvor Ruf, 2017. "Q-Targeting in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 189-224, November.
    11. repec:spr:pharme:v:4:y:2014:i:1:p:45-69 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Financial Fluctuations; Credit Frictions; Bank Equity; Financial Shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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