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Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles

  • Yasin Mimir

I document key business cycle facts of aggregate financial flows in the U.S. banking sector : (i) Bank credit, deposits and loan spread are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are more volatile, (ii) bank credit and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical, and (iii) financial variables lead the output fluctuations by one to three quarters. I then present an equilibrium real business cycle model with a financial sector, that is capable of matching these newly documented stylized facts. An agency problem between banks and their depositors induces endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households. Empirically-disciplined shocks to bank net worth alter the ability of banks to borrow and to extend credit to firms. I find that these financial shocks are important not only for explaining the dynamics of financial flows but also for the dynamics of standard macroeconomic aggregates. They play a major role in driving real fluctuations due to their impact on the tightness of bank capital constraint and the credit spread. The tightness measure of credit conditions in the model tracks the index of tightening credit standards constructed by the Federal Reserve Board quite well.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1313.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1313
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  1. (Kim | Lopez-Salido | Swanson) & Andrew Levin, 2004. "The magnitude and Cyclical Behavior of Financial Market Frictions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 224, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2006. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," 2006 Meeting Papers 801, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  4. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
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  8. Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. Hancock, Diana & Laing, Andrew J. & Wilcox, James A., 1995. "Bank capital shocks: Dynamic effects on securities, loans, and capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 661-677, June.
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  21. repec:dgr:kubcen:2010108s is not listed on IDEAS
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  24. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Credit Supply Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 195-232, June.
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