Optimal leverage, its benefits, and the business cycle
We study the effect of the business cycle on optimal capital structure choice and the benefit to leverage. We propose a regime switching model with a state-dependent cash flow process to capture macroeconomic risk in a firm's cash flow. Our model is parsimonious but still realistic and allows for a wide range of analysis. We find pro-cyclical optimal leverage ratios, benefits to leverage, and costs of operating at a non-optimal leverage. If macroeconomic risk decreases, i.e. earnings become more stable and growth rates less volatile, optimal leverage and its benefits increase due to lower default risk. The regime switching property of EBIT traces observed EBIT paths closely and is applicable to a wide range of corporate valuation models. Our model offers novel empirically testable implications, such as higher tax benefits after the change in macroeconomic risk since the late 1980s and common capital structure adjustments in recessions and around turning points.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 0221 / 470 5607|
Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
Web page: http://cfr-cologne.de/english/version06/html/home.php
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2006.
"Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 519-550, December.
- Dirk Hackbarth & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2004. "Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions," FAME Research Paper Series rp125, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Dirk Hackbarth & Junjian Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2005. "Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Dirk Hackbarth & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2005. "Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions," CEMA Working Papers 439, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
- Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 16151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- K.J. Martijn Cremers & Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout, 2008. "Explaining the Level of Credit Spreads: Option-Implied Jump Risk Premia in a Firm Value Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2209-2242, September.
- Martijn Cremers & Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout & David Weinbaum, 2005. "Explaining the level of credit spreads: option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model," BIS Working Papers 191, Bank for International Settlements.
- Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
- Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December.
- Michael R. Roberts & Mark T. Leary, 2004. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 52, Econometric Society.
- Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
- Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-899, April.
- Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.