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Changing with the Tide: Semi-Parametric Estimation of Preference Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Thijs Dekker

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Paul Koster

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Roy Brouwer

    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in Land Economics (2014). Volume 90(4), pages 717-745. This paper contrasts the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split-sample stated choice experiment on flood risk exposure in the Netherlands. A semi-parametric local multinomial logit model (L-MNL) is developed as an alternative to the Swait and Louviere (1993) procedure to control for preference dynamics within and between samples. The L-MNL model finds empirical support for the discovered preference hypothesis in the form of a declining starting point bias induced by the first choice task. These results differ from the Swait and Louviere procedure which, due to its limited flexibility, accepts the standard assumption underlying microeconomic theory of stable preference parameters throughout the choice sequence. The observed preference dynamics puts the use of choice experiments at risk of generating biased welfare estimates if not controlled for.

Suggested Citation

  • Thijs Dekker & Paul Koster & Roy Brouwer, 2013. "Changing with the Tide: Semi-Parametric Estimation of Preference Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-074/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130074
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Koster & Hans Koster, 2013. "Commuters' Preferences for Fast and Reliable Travel," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-075/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Apr 2015.
    2. Tobias Börger & Kolobe Mmonwa & Danny Campbell, 2024. "Hazardous human–wildlife encounters, risk attitudes, and the value of shark nets for coastal recreation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 925-945, March.
    3. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Barczak, Anna & Budziński, Wiktor & Giergiczny, Marek & Hanley, Nick, 2016. "Preference and WTP stability for public forest management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 11-22.
    4. Lauren Chenarides & Carola Grebitus & Jayson L Lusk & Iryna Printezis, 2022. "A calibrated choice experiment method [Combining revealed and stated preference methods for valuing environmental amenities]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(5), pages 971-1004.
    5. Koster, Paul R. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2015. "Commuters’ preferences for fast and reliable travel: A semi-parametric estimation approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 289-301.
    6. Wiktor Budziński & Danny Campbell & Mikołaj Czajkowski & Urška Demšar & Nick Hanley, 2018. "Using Geographically Weighted Choice Models to Account for the Spatial Heterogeneity of Preferences," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 606-626, September.
    7. Mark J. Koetse & Roy Brouwer, 2016. "Reference Dependence Effects on WTA and WTP Value Functions and Their Disparity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(4), pages 723-745, December.
    8. Wiktor Budziński & Mikołaj Czajkowski, 2018. "A Monte Carlo investigation of the effects of spatial heterogeneity of preferences for discrete choice models," Working Papers 2018-24, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Dekker, Thijs & Hess, Stephane & Brouwer, Roy & Hofkes, Marjan, 2016. "Decision uncertainty in multi-attribute stated preference studies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 57-73.
    10. Wiktor Budziński & Mikołaj Czajkowski, 2021. "Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity of Preferences in Discrete Choice Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preference dynamics; Discovered preference hypothesis; Coherent arbitrariness; Preference uncertainty; Local multinomial logit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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