Predicting home-appliance acquisition sequences: Markov/Markov for Discrimination and survival analysis for modeling sequential information in NPTB models
The acquisition process of consumer durables is a ‘sequence’ of purchase events. Priority-pattern research exploits this ‘sequential order’ to describe a prototypical acquisition order for durables. This paper adds a predictive perspective to increase managerial relevance. Besides order information, the acquisition sequence also reveals precise timing between purchase events (‘sequential duration’) as examined in the literature on durable replacement and time-to-first acquisition. This paper bridges the gap between priority-pattern research and research on duration between durable acquisitions to improve the prediction of the product group the customer might acquire his next durable from, i.e. Next-Product-to-Buy (NPTB) model. We evaluate four multinomial-choice models incorporating: 1) general covariates, 2) general covariates and sequential order, 3) general covariates and sequential duration, and 4) general covariates, sequential order and duration. The results favor the model including general covariates and duration information (3). The high predictive value of sequentialduration information emphasizes the predictive power of duration as compared to order information.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent|
Phone: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 34 61
Fax: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 35 92
Web page: http://www.ugent.be/eb
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter E. Rossi & Robert E. McCulloch & Greg M. Allenby, 1996. "The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 321-340.
- A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Constrained optimization of data-mining problems to improve model performance: A direct-marketing application," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/298, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Dipak C. Jain & Naufel J. Vilcassim, 1991. "Investigating Household Purchase Timing Decisions: A Conditional Hazard Function Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.
- Viviana P. Fernandez, 2000.
"Decisions To Replace Consumer Durables Goods: An Econometric Application Of Wiener And Renewal Processes,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 452-461, August.
- Viviana Fernandez, 2000. "Decisions to Replace Consumer Durables Goods: An Econometric Application of Wiener and Renewal Processes," Documentos de Trabajo 87, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
- Kasulis, Jack J & Lusch, Robert F & Stafford, Edward F, Jr, 1979. " Consumer Acquisition Patterns for Durable Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 47-57, June.
- Hauser, John R & Urban, Glen L, 1986. " The Value Priority Hypotheses for Consumer Budget Plans," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 446-462, March.
- Barry L. Bayus, 1992. "Brand Loyalty and Marketing Strategy: An Application to Home Appliances," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 21-38.
- Sudeep Haldar & Vithala Rao, 1998. "A micro-analytic threshold model for the timing of first purchases of durable goods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 959-974.
- Geoffrey Soutar & Steven Cornish-Ward, 1997. "Ownership patterns for durable goods and financial assets: a Rasch analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 903-911.
- Seetharaman, P B & Chintagunta, Pradeep K, 2003. "The Proportional Hazard Model for Purchase Timing: A Comparison of Alternative Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 368-382, July.
- Paas, Leonard J., 1998. "Mokken scaling characteristic sets and acquisition patterns of durable- and financial products," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-376, June.
- Dickson, Peter R & Lusch, Robert F & Wilkie, William L, 1983. " Consumer Acquisition Priorities for Home Appliances: A Replication and Re-evaluation," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 432-435, March.
- Johnson, Michael D, 1984. " Consumer Choice Strategies for Comparing Noncomparable Alternatives," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 741-753, December.
- Murphy, Patrick E & Staples, William A, 1979. " A Modernized Family Life Cycle," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 12-22, June.
- Ratneshwar, S & Pechmann, Cornelia & Shocker, Allan D, 1996. " Goal-Derived Categories and the Antecedents of Across-Category Consideration," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 240-250, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)