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Predicting partial customer churn using Markov for discrimination for modeling first purchase sequences

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  • Vera Miguéis
  • Dirk Poel
  • Ana Camanho
  • João Falcão e Cunha

Abstract

Currently, in order to remain competitive companies are adopting customer centered strategies and consequently customer relationship management is gaining increasing importance. In this context, customer retention deserves particular attention. This paper proposes a model for partial churn detection in the retail grocery sector that includes as a predictor the similarity of the products’ first purchase sequence with churner and non-churner sequences. The sequence of first purchase events is modeled using Markov for discrimination. Two classification techniques are used in the empirical study: logistic regression and random forests. A real sample of approximately 95,000 new customers is analyzed taken from the data warehouse of a European retailing company. The empirical results reveal the relevance of the inclusion of a products’ sequence likelihood in partial churn prediction models, as well as the supremacy of logistic regression when compared with random forests. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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  • Vera Miguéis & Dirk Poel & Ana Camanho & João Falcão e Cunha, 2012. "Predicting partial customer churn using Markov for discrimination for modeling first purchase sequences," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 6(4), pages 337-353, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:advdac:v:6:y:2012:i:4:p:337-353
    DOI: 10.1007/s11634-012-0121-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Uroš Droftina & Mitja Å tular & Andrej Košir, 2015. "A diffusion model for churn prediction based on sociometric theory," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(3), pages 341-365, September.
    3. Katerina Shapoval & Thomas Setzer, 2018. "Next-Purchase Prediction Using Projections of Discounted Purchasing Sequences," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 60(2), pages 151-166, April.
    4. Miguel Angel de la Llave Montiel & Fernando López, 2020. "Spatial models for online retail churn: Evidence from an online grocery delivery service in Madrid," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1643-1665, December.
    5. Ballings, Michel & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2015. "CRM in social media: Predicting increases in Facebook usage frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 248-260.

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