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A hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine for customer churn prediction using longitudinal behavioral data

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  • Chen, Zhen-Yu
  • Fan, Zhi-Ping
  • Sun, Minghe

Abstract

The availability of abundant data posts a challenge to integrate static customer data and longitudinal behavioral data to improve performance in customer churn prediction. Usually, longitudinal behavioral data are transformed into static data before being included in a prediction model. In this study, a framework with ensemble techniques is presented for customer churn prediction directly using longitudinal behavioral data. A novel approach called the hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine (H-MK-SVM) is formulated. A three phase training algorithm for the H-MK-SVM is developed, implemented and tested. The H-MK-SVM constructs a classification function by estimating the coefficients of both static and longitudinal behavioral variables in the training process without transformation of the longitudinal behavioral data. The training process of the H-MK-SVM is also a feature selection and time subsequence selection process because the sparse non-zero coefficients correspond to the variables selected. Computational experiments using three real-world databases were conducted. Computational results using multiple criteria measuring performance show that the H-MK-SVM directly using longitudinal behavioral data performs better than currently available classifiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhen-Yu & Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2012. "A hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine for customer churn prediction using longitudinal behavioral data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 461-472.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:223:y:2012:i:2:p:461-472
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.06.040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2016. "A multi-kernel support tensor machine for classification with multitype multiway data and an application to cross-selling recommendationsAuthor-Name: Chen, Zhen-Yu," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 110-120.
    2. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2015. "Behavior-aware user response modeling in social media: Learning from diverse heterogeneous dataAuthor-Name: Chen, Zhen-Yu," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(2), pages 422-434.
    3. Clemente-Císcar, M. & San Matías, S. & Giner-Bosch, V., 2014. "A methodology based on profitability criteria for defining the partial defection of customers in non-contractual settings," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(1), pages 276-285.
    4. Jian Luo & Shu-Cherng Fang & Zhibin Deng & Xiaoling Guo, 2016. "Soft Quadratic Surface Support Vector Machine for Binary Classification," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 33(06), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Tang, Leilei & Thomas, Lyn & Fletcher, Mary & Pan, Jiazhu & Marshall, Andrew, 2014. "Assessing the impact of derived behavior information on customer attrition in the financial service industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 624-633.
    6. Carrizosa, Emilio & Olivares-Nadal, Alba V. & Ramírez-Cobo, Pepa, 2013. "Time series interpolation via global optimization of moments fitting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 97-112.
    7. Aimée Backiel & Bart Baesens & Gerda Claeskens, 2016. "Predicting time-to-churn of prepaid mobile telephone customers using social network analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(9), pages 1135-1145, September.

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