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Modeling churn using customer lifetime value

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  • Glady, Nicolas
  • Baesens, Bart
  • Croux, Christophe

Abstract

The definition and modeling of customer loyalty have been central issues in customer relationship management since many years. Recent papers propose solutions to detect customers that are becoming less loyal, also called churners. The churner status is then defined as a function of the volume of commercial transactions. In the context of a Belgian retail financial service company, our first contribution is to redefine the notion of customer loyalty by considering it from a customer-centric viewpoint instead of a product-centric one. We hereby use the customer lifetime value (CLV) defined as the discounted value of future marginal earnings, based on the customer's activity. Hence, a churner is defined as someone whose CLV, thus the related marginal profit, is decreasing. As a second contribution, the loss incurred by the CLV decrease is used to appraise the cost to misclassify a customer by introducing a new loss function. In the empirical study, we compare the accuracy of various classification techniques commonly used in the domain of churn prediction, including two cost-sensitive classifiers. Our final conclusion is that since profit is what really matters in a commercial environment, standard statistical accuracy measures for prediction need to be revised and a more profit oriented focus may be desirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Glady, Nicolas & Baesens, Bart & Croux, Christophe, 2009. "Modeling churn using customer lifetime value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 402-411, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:197:y:2009:i:1:p:402-411
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Crowder, Martin & Hand, David J. & Krzanowski, Wojtek, 2007. "On optimal intervention for customer lifetime value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1550-1559, December.
    2. Buckinx, Wouter & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2005. "Customer base analysis: partial defection of behaviourally loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 252-268, July.
    3. Viaene, Stijn & Dedene, Guido, 2005. "Cost-sensitive learning and decision making revisited," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 212-220, October.
    4. Ma, Ming & Li, Zehui & Chen, Jinyuan, 2008. "Phase-type distribution of customer relationship with Markovian response and marketing expenditure decision on the customer lifetime value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 313-326, May.
    5. Van den Poel, Dirk & Lariviere, Bart, 2004. "Customer attrition analysis for financial services using proportional hazard models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 196-217, August.
    6. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2006. "Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn," Other publications TiSEM d5cb664d-5859-44db-a621-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. K. W. De Bock & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Reconciling Performance and Interpretability in Customer Churn Prediction using Ensemble Learning based on Generalized Additive Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/805, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. repec:dgr:rugsom:10008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chen, Zhen-Yu & Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2012. "A hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine for customer churn prediction using longitudinal behavioral data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 461-472.
    4. Clemente-Císcar, M. & San Matías, S. & Giner-Bosch, V., 2014. "A methodology based on profitability criteria for defining the partial defection of customers in non-contractual settings," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(1), pages 276-285.
    5. K. W. De Bock & D. Van Den Poel, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of rotation-based ensemble classifiers for customer churn prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/717, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Tang, Leilei & Thomas, Lyn & Fletcher, Mary & Pan, Jiazhu & Marshall, Andrew, 2014. "Assessing the impact of derived behavior information on customer attrition in the financial service industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 624-633.
    7. Ballings, Michel & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2015. "CRM in social media: Predicting increases in Facebook usage frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 248-260.
    8. Mirza Hassan Hosseini & Mahdi Rezaei, 2015. "Exploratory Study on Causes of Valuable Costumers Turnover in Irans Private Banking Industry (Case Study: Physician Specialists Society)," Journal of Asian Scientific Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(5), pages 251-260, May.
    9. Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Bl, 2010. "Should they stay or should they go? Reactivation and termination of low-tier customers," Research Report 10008, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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