IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/09-603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Improved Marketing Decision Making in a Customer Churn Prediction Context Using Generalized Additive Models

Author

Listed:
  • K. COUSSEMENT

    ()

  • D. F. BENOIT
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

Abstract

Nowadays, companies are investing in a well-considered CRM strategy. One of the cornerstones in CRM is customer churn prediction, where one tries to predict whether or not a customer will leave the company. This study focuses on how to better support marketing decision makers in identifying risky customers by using Generalized Additive Models (GAM). Compared to Logistic Regression, GAM relaxes the linearity constraint which allows for complex non-linear fits to the data. The contributions to the literature are three-fold: (i) it is shown that GAM is able to improve marketing decision making by better identifying risky customers; (ii) it is shown that GAM increases the interpretability of the churn model by visualizing the non-linear relationships with customer churn identifying a quasi-exponential, a U, an inverted U or a complex trend and (iii) marketing managers are able to significantly increase business value by applying GAM in this churn prediction context.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Coussement & D. F. Benoit & D. Van Den Poel, 2009. "Improved Marketing Decision Making in a Customer Churn Prediction Context Using Generalized Additive Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/603, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_09_603.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buckinx, Wouter & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2005. "Customer base analysis: partial defection of behaviourally loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 252-268, July.
    2. Greg Shaffer & Z. John Zhang, 2002. "Competitive One-to-One Promotions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(9), pages 1143-1160, September.
    3. Thomas S. Shively & Greg M. Allenby & Robert Kohn, 2000. "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying Latent Relationships in Hierarchical Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 149-162, November.
    4. Van den Poel, Dirk & Lariviere, Bart, 2004. "Customer attrition analysis for financial services using proportional hazard models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 196-217, August.
    5. J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Handling class imbalance in customer churn prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/517, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2006. "Churn Prediction in Subscription Services: an Application of Support Vector Machines While Comparing Two Parameter-Selection Techniques," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/412, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2006. "Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn," Other publications TiSEM d5cb664d-5859-44db-a621-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Joel L. Horowitz & N. E. Savin, 2001. "Binary Response Models: Logits, Probits and Semiparametrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 43-56, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. K. W. De Bock & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Reconciling Performance and Interpretability in Customer Churn Prediction using Ensemble Learning based on Generalized Additive Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/805, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel & E. Verhagen, 2013. "Evaluating the Added Value of Pictorial Data for Customer Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/869, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Including Spatial Interdependence in Customer Acquisition Models: a Cross-Category Comparison," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/788, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. D. F. Benoit & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improving Customer Retention In Financial Services Using Kinship Network Information," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/786, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Gaurav Gupta & Himanshu Aggarwal, 2016. "Analysing customer responses to migrate strategies in making retailing and CRM effective," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 92-127.
    6. K. W. De Bock & D. Van Den Poel, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of rotation-based ensemble classifiers for customer churn prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/717, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "The Relevant Length of Customer Event History for Churn Prediction: How long is long enough?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/804, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nathalie Verhaeghe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.