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Modeling Partial Customer Churn: On the Value of First Product-Category Purchase Sequences

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  • V. L. MIGUÉIS
  • D. VAN DEN POEL
  • A.S. CAMANHO
  • J. FALCAO E CUNHA

Abstract

Retaining customers has been considered one of the most critical challenges among those included in Customer Relationship Management (CRM), particularly in the grocery retail sector. In this context, an accurate prediction whether or not a customer will leave the company, i.e. churn prediction, is crucial for companies to conduct effective retention campaigns. This paper proposes to include in partial churn detection models the succession of first products’ categories purchased as a proxy of the state of trust and demand maturity of a customer towards a company in grocery retailing. Motivated by the importance of the first impressions and risks experienced recently on the current state of the relationship, we model the first purchase succession in chronological order as well as in reverse order, respectively. Due to the variable relevance of the first customer-company interactions and of the most recent interactions, these two variables are modeled by considering a variable length of the sequence. In this study we use logistic regression as the classification technique. A real sample of approximately 75,000 new customers taken from the data warehouse of a European retail company is used to test the proposed models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and 1%, 5% and 10% percentiles lift are used to assess the performance of the partial-churn prediction models. The empirical results reveal that both proposed models outperform the standard RFM model.

Suggested Citation

  • V. L. Miguéis & D. Van Den Poel & A.S. Camanho & J. Falcao E Cunha, 2012. "Modeling Partial Customer Churn: On the Value of First Product-Category Purchase Sequences," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/790, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:12/790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Handling class imbalance in customer churn prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/517, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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    8. B. Larivière & D. Van Den Poel, 2004. "Predicting Customer Retention and Profitability by Using Random Forests and Regression Forests Techniques," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/282, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Incorporating sequential information into traditional classification models by using an element/position- sensitive SAM," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/292, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "CRM at a Pay-TV Company: Using Analytical Models to Reduce Customer Attrition by Targeted Marketing for Subscription Services," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/348, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Prinzie, Anita & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2006. "Investigating purchasing-sequence patterns for financial services using Markov, MTD and MTDg models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(3), pages 710-734, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    2. Takanobu Nakahara & Katsutoshi Yada, 2012. "Analyzing consumers’ shopping behavior using RFID data and pattern mining," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 6(4), pages 355-365, December.
    3. Clemente-Císcar, M. & San Matías, S. & Giner-Bosch, V., 2014. "A methodology based on profitability criteria for defining the partial defection of customers in non-contractual settings," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(1), pages 276-285.
    4. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Protecting Research and Technology from Espionage," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/824, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. J. D’Haen & D. Van Den Poel & D. Thorleuchter, 2012. "Predicting Customer Profitability During Acquisition: Finding the Optimal Combination of Data Source and Data Mining Technique," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/818, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Gattermann-Itschert, Theresa & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2021. "How training on multiple time slices improves performance in churn prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 664-674.
    8. Abbas Keramati & Hajar Ghaneei & Seyed Mohammad Mirmohammadi, 2016. "Developing a prediction model for customer churn from electronic banking services using data mining," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Vera Miguéis & Dirk Poel & Ana Camanho & João Falcão e Cunha, 2012. "Predicting partial customer churn using Markov for discrimination for modeling first purchase sequences," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 6(4), pages 337-353, December.
    10. Ballings, Michel & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2015. "CRM in social media: Predicting increases in Facebook usage frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 248-260.
    11. Lázár, Ede, 2015. "Customer Churn Prediction Embedded in an Analytical CRM Model," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2015), Kotor, Montengero, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Kotor, Montengero, 10-11 September 2015, pages 258-264, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.

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