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Improving purchasing behavior predictions by data augmentation with situational variables

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  • P. BAECKE
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

    ()

Abstract

Nowadays, an increasing number of information technology tools are implemented in order to support decision making about marketing strategies and improve customer relationship management (CRM). Consequently, an improvement in CRM can be obtained by enhancing the databases on which these information technology tools are based. This study shows that data augmentation with situational variables of the purchase occasion can significantly improve purchasing behavior predictions for a home vending company. Three dimensions of situational variables are examined: physical surroundings, temporal perspective and social surroundings respectively represented by weather, time and salesperson variables. The smallest, but still significant, increase in predictive performance was measured by enhancing the model with time variables. Besides the moment of the day, this study shows that the incorporation of weather variables, and more specifically sunshine, can also improve the accuracy of a CRM model. Finally, the best improvement in purchasing behavior predictions was obtained by taking the salesperson effect into account using a multilevel model.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2010. "Improving purchasing behavior predictions by data augmentation with situational variables," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/658, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:10/658
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    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_10_658.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wagner Kamakura & Carl Mela & Asim Ansari & Anand Bodapati & Pete Fader & Raghuram Iyengar & Prasad Naik & Scott Neslin & Baohong Sun & Peter Verhoef & Michel Wedel & Ron Wilcox, 2005. "Choice Models and Customer Relationship Management," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 279-291, December.
    2. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2009. "Data Augmentation by Predicting Spending Pleasure Using Commercially Available External Data," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/596, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Thomas J. Steenburgh & Andrew Ainslie & Peder Hans Engebretson, 2003. "Massively Categorical Variables: Revealing the Information in Zip Codes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 40-57, August.
    4. Van den Poel, Dirk & Buckinx, Wouter, 2005. "Predicting online-purchasing behaviour," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 557-575, October.
    5. W. Buckinx & E. Moons & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2003. "Customer-Adapted Coupon Targeting Using Feature Selection," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/201, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Improving Customer Attrition Prediction by Integrating Emotions from Client/Company Interaction Emails and Evaluating Multiple Classifiers," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/527, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2007. "Random Forrests for Multiclass classification: Random Multinomial Logit," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/435, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Levy, Ori & Galili, Itai, 2008. "Stock purchase and the weather: Individual differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 755-767, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel & E. Verhagen, 2013. "Evaluating the Added Value of Pictorial Data for Customer Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/869, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Including Spatial Interdependence in Customer Acquisition Models: a Cross-Category Comparison," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/788, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improving Customer Acquisition Models by Incorporating Spatial Autocorrelation at Different Levels of Granularity," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/819, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "The Relevant Length of Customer Event History for Churn Prediction: How long is long enough?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/804, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Customer relationship management (CRM); data enhancement; multilevel model; situational variables; purchase predictions; home vending; predictive analytics.;

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