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How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages?

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  • Georgios Bampinas

    (Department of Economics and Regional Development, Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Greece)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece)

Abstract

This paper studies the cross-market linkages between six international stock markets and the two major cryptocurrency markets during the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By employing the local (partial) Gaussian correlation approach, we find that during the Covid-19 pandemic period, both cryptocurrency markets possess limited diversification and safe haven properties, which further diminish during the war. Bootstrap tests for contagion suggest that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the East Asian markets lead the transmission of contagion towards the two cryptocurrency markets. During the Russian invasion, the US stock market emerges as the principal transmitter of contagion. Uncovering the role of pandemic (Infectious Disease EMV Index) and geopolitical risk (GPR index) induced uncertainties, we find that under conditions of high uncertainty and falling prices, the dependency between the US and UK stock markets with both cryptocurrency markets increases considerably. The latter is more profound during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Our findings are useful for investors in their search for understanding the differences in asymmetric connectedness between markets during extreme events.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2024. "How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages?," Working Paper series 24-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:24-01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Ethereum; cryptocurrency; stock market; tail dependence; local Gaussian partial correlation; pandemic uncertainty; geopolitical risk uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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