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The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns

Author

Listed:
  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (University of Macedonia, Greece; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Thanasis Stengos

    (University of Guelph, Canada; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Orestis Vravosinos

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain)

Abstract

We review the literature and examine the effects of shocks on bitcoin returns. We assess the effects of factors such as stock market returns, exchange rates, gold and oil returns, FED’s and ECB’s rates and internet trends on bitcoin returns. Alternative VAR and FAVAR models are employed and generalized as well as local impulse response functions are produced. Our results reveal (i) a significant interaction between bitcoin and traditional stock markets, (ii) a weaker interaction with FX markets and the macroeconomy and (iii) an anemic importance of popularity measures. Lastly, we reveal the increased impact of Asian markets on bitcoin compared to other geographically-defined markets, which however appears to have waned in the last two years after the Chinese regulatory interventions and the sudden contraction of CNY’s share in bitcoin trading volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Panagiotidis & Thanasis Stengos & Orestis Vravosinos, 2018. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," Working Paper series 18-39, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:18-39
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    Cited by:

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    9. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
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    13. Vasilios Plakandaras & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is there a Role for the U.S. – China Trade War?," Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Pınar Kaya Soylu & Mustafa Okur & Özgür Çatıkkaş & Z. Ayca Altintig, 2020. "Long Memory in the Volatility of Selected Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2020. "Is Bitcoin Similar to Gold? An Integrated Overview of Empirical Findings," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, May.
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    17. Derick Quintino & Jessica Campoli & Heloisa Burnquist & Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Efficiency of the Brazilian Bitcoin: A DFA Approach," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9, April.
    18. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    19. Bleher, Johannes & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2019. "Today I got a million, tomorrow, I don't know: On the predictability of cryptocurrencies by means of Google search volume," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 147-159.
    20. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2020. "Tail behavior of Bitcoin, the dollar, gold and the stock market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    21. Tan, Chia-Yen & Koh, You-Beng & Ng, Kok-Haur & Ng, Kooi-Huat, 2021. "Dynamic volatility modelling of Bitcoin using time-varying transition probability Markov-switching GARCH model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    22. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Returns before and after the Introduction of Bitcoin Futures," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, June.
    23. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Bitcoin-US stock nexus," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    24. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2021. "Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    25. Serda Selin Ozturk, 2020. "Dynamic Connectedness between Bitcoin, Gold, and Crude Oil Volatilities and Returns," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bitcoin; cryptocurrency; exchange rate; returns; FAVAR; factor analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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