IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56773.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες Της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης Κατά Την Περίοδο 1990-2010 Και Μέτρα Ενίσχυσης Της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης
[The Determinants of National Savings in Greece during the period 1990-2010 and Measures for Economic Growth]

Author

Listed:
  • Tsermenidis, Konstantinos

Abstract

Η Εθνική Αποταμίευση κατά την περίοδο της εικοσαετίας 1990-2010 εμφανίζεται συνεχώς μειούμενη. Οι αιτίες αυτού του φαινομένου μπορούν να εντοπιστούν τόσο στα συστατικά της, όσο και σε άλλους παράγοντες οι οποίοι συντέλεσαν στην εικόνα αυτή. Προβαίνοντας σε μια μελέτη άλλων χωρών της Ευρωζώνης, αρχικά εντοπίζουμε κάποιους από τους παράγοντες οι οποίοι συνδέονται με τα επίπεδα της αποταμίευσης και στη συνέχεια με μια συγκριτική ανάλυση με την Ελλάδα, αναδεικνύουμε κάποιες από τις αιτίες της πορείας αυτής. Εστιάζοντας στην Ελλάδα, εντοπίζουμε τα Εισοδήματα από την Αλλοδαπή και το Ισοζύγιο Μεταβιβάσεων, ως παράγοντες βαρύνουσας σημασίας στην πορεία της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης, κάνοντας τη διάκριση μεταξύ αυτής και της Εγχώριας. Έχοντας στη συνέχεια υπόψη τους εξωτερικούς αυτούς παράγοντες από τη μία και την Εγχώρια Αποταμίευση από την άλλη, επιχειρούμε μία ανάλυση της επίδρασης αυτών των παραγόντων στην Ανάπτυξη. Τα κύρια ευρήματα της μελέτης μας είναι ότι τα επίπεδα της Εθνικής αποταμίευσης στην Ελλάδα μπορούν να αιτιολογηθούν μέσα από ένα υπόδειγμα βασισμένο σε χώρες της Ζώνης του Ευρώ χρησιμοποιώντας ως παραμέτρους τις Εξαγωγές, τον Πληθωρισμό, τη μεταβολή των Δαπανών της Γενικής Κυβέρνησης και την ίδια την Ανάπτυξη. Επιπλέον, με το πέρας των ετών, ενώ η Εθνική Αποταμίευση συγκριτικά με τις υπόλοιπες χώρες είναι σαφώς μεγαλύτερη της Εγχώριας, υπονοώντας την επίδραση των στοιχείων της Εθνικής αποταμίευσης που σχετίζονται με το εξωτερικό, δηλαδή των Εισοδημάτων και των Μεταβιβάσεων, στο τέλος της εικοσαετίας παρατηρείται μία ταύτιση των δύο εξαιτίας της εξάλειψης αυτών των εξωτερικών παραγόντων. Εστιάζοντας στη συνέχεια σε αυτούς τους παράγοντες και συνδέοντας τους με την ανάπτυξη, βρίσκουμε θετικές επιδράσεις σε αυτήν τόσο από την Εγχώρια Αποταμίευση, όσο και από τα Εισοδήματα και τις Μεταβιβάσεις. Τα θετικά παρ' όλα αυτά οφέλη για την ανάπτυξη από μία θετική μεταβολή αυτών των παραγόντων, μπορεί να μην είναι ορατά παρά μόνο από το τρίτο έτος της μεταβολής. Μολονότι οι εξωτερικοί παράγοντες έχουν πλέον σχεδόν εξαλειφθεί, σημαντικό είναι το γεγονός ότι και η Εγχώρια Αποταμίευση από μόνη της μπορεί να ωφελεί την Ανάπτυξη. Τα αποτελέσματα παρ' όλα αυτά, θα πρέπει να ληφθούν υπόψη με επιφύλαξη, κυρίως εξαιτίας του μικρού μεγέθους του δείγματός μας, αλλά και πιθανού σφάλματος των υποθέσεων που κάναμε στην εφαρμογή των υποδειγμάτων.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsermenidis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες Της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης Κατά Την Περίοδο 1990-2010 Και Μέτρα Ενίσχυσης Της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης
    [The Determinants of National Savings in Greece during the period 1990-2
    ," MPRA Paper 56773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56773
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56773/1/MPRA_paper_56773.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56773/2/MPRA_paper_56773.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paresh Narayan & Saud AL Siyabi, 2005. "An Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Oman's National Savings," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(51), pages 1-7.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Constantino Hevia & Norman Loayza, 2012. "Saving And Growth In Egypt," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-23.
    4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    7. Sinha, Dipendra, 1999. "Do Exports Promote Savings in African Countries?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 52(3), pages 383-395.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    10. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    13. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    14. Bruno S. Sergi & Karel Vít, 2004. "How to Rationalize the Export-Saving Paradigm (the Czech experience)," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(2), pages 115-120.
    15. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    16. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    20. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
    21. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    22. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    23. Deaton, Angus S, 1977. "Involuntary Saving through Unanticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 899-910, December.
    24. Dowrick, Steve, 1996. "Estimating the Impact of Government Consumption on Growth: Growth Accounting and Endogenous Growth Models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 163-186.
    25. Barbara Liberda & Tomasz Tokarski, 1999. "Determinates of Savings and Economic Growth in Poland in Comparison to the OECD Countries," CASE-CEU Working Papers 0024, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    26. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    28. Robert T. Nash & William P. Gramm, 1969. "A Neglected Early Statement of the Paradox of Thrift," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 395-400, Fall.
    29. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
    30. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    31. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    national savings; growth; income from abroad; net transfers from abroad; εθνική αποταμίευση; ανάπτυξη; εισοδήματα από την αλλοδαπή; ισοζύγιο πληρωμών;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.