Subjective Appraisals of Employee Potential: Do Gender and Managerial Level Matter?

While a growing number of empirical studies have analyzed gender differences at various career stages, there is a dearth of studies about formal appraisals of men’s and women’s career potential, i.e., their promotability. In this paper, I will empirically analyze whether female employees’ promotability assessments are systematically inferior to their equally qualified male colleagues. In doing so, I use detailed personnel data of a large global German company that has a formal promotability evaluation process in place. I consider a wide range of contextual variables that have been neglected in the past, such as information on employees’ demographic (i.e., gender, age, tenure) and job-related characteristics (i.e., pay grade, working hours, performance assessments), additional information on the employees’ direct supervisors, and the composition of the department. I find women’s likelihood of receiving an evaluation that qualifies them as promotable to be around 5 percentage points lower than for their male counterparts – the probability of receiving an outstanding assessment being only 20 percent per se. The gap is even more pronounced at around the age of 30, i.e., the average childbearing age in Germany. Furthermore, gender gaps persist at managerial levels, which points to the existence of systematic gender differences in formal promotability evaluation processes.