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Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains

Author

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  • Jan Hagemejer

    (Narodowy Bank Polski and University of Warsaw)

  • Jakub Mućk

    (Narodowy Bank Polski and Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) countries to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEEC countries with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyze the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analyzed period of 1995-2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2018. "Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains," NBP Working Papers 283, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:283
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hosein, Roger & Satnarine-Singh, Nirvana & Saridakis, George, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Exports: An Analysis of Caribbean SIDs," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 1-28.
    3. Muhammad Azam & Saleem Khan, 2022. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and economic growth: Further empirical evidence from the developed and developing world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4224-4243, October.
    4. Shuang Meng & Huan Yan & Jiajie Yu, 2022. "Global Value Chain Participation and Green Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Maciej Stefański, 2020. "To What Extent does Convergence Explain the Slowdown in Potential Growth of the CEE Countries Following the Global Financial Crisis?," Working Papers 2020-058, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    6. Grodzicki, Maciej J. & Możdżeń, Michał, 2021. "Central and Eastern European economies in a Goldilocks age: A model of labor market institutional choice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Xiao Dai & Liang Yan & Liu Jianping & JianWu, 2022. "A research on the threshold effect of human capital structure upgrading and industrial structure upgrading—based on the perspective of path dependence," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2645-2674, August.
    8. Nacewska-Twardowska Aleksandra, 2022. "Poland and global value chains at the beginning of the 21st century – An opportunity or a threat?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 58(1), pages 33-43, March.
    9. Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Carlos A. Carrasco & Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2021. "Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 919-941, November.
    12. Piotr Szpunar & Jan Hagemejer, 2018. "Globalisation and the Polish economy: macro and micro growth effects," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 273-289, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Aleksandra Nacewska-Twardowska, 2021. "Central and Eastern Europe Countries in the New International Trade Environment at the Beginning of the 21st Century: Global Value Chains and COVID-19," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 547-560.
    14. Gereben, Áron & Wruuck, Patricia, 2021. "Towards a new growth model in CESEE: Convergence and competitiveness through smart, green and inclusive investment," EIB Working Papers 2021/01, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    15. Hagemejer Jan & Michałek Jan J. & Svatko Pavel, 2021. "Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 126-143, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; international trade; GVC; heterogeneous panels; common correlated effects estimation; CEEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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