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Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States

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  • Henk Kranendonk
  • Johan Verbruggen

Abstract

The composition of economic growth can be analyzed in two different ways. In the 'traditional method' for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this 'import-adjusted method' is more complex than the 'traditional method', it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology and data requirements for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six European countries and the United States, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story.
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  • Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 295-306, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:156:y:2008:i:3:p:295-306
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-008-9095-0
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    1. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 295-306, September.
    2. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP-growth in some European Countries and the United States," CPB Memorandum 203.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP growth in European countries; different methods tell different stories," CPB Document 158, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Martin Mellens & Herman Noordman & Johan Verbruggen, 2007. "Re-exports: international comparison and implications for performance indicators," CPB Document 149, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2005. "How to determine the contributions of domestic demand and exports to economic growth?," CPB Memorandum 129, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Verwendungs- und produktionsseitige Zerlegung der Jahresverlaufsrate," Kiel Insight 2019.1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 295-306, September.
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    4. Aaron George Grech & Noel Rapa, 2019. "A reassessment of external demand’s contribution to Malta’s economic growth," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Höpner, Martin & Baccaro, Lucio, 2022. "Das deutsche Wachstumsmodell, 1991-2019," MPIfG Discussion Paper 22/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    6. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2018. "Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains," NBP Working Papers 283, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    7. Mayer, Jörg, 2012. "Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 627-642.
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2019 - Euroraum: Konjunktur im Kielwasser des Welthandels [Euro Area Spring 2019 - Euro area economy slows further]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 52, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017–2019: German Economy on Track to Boom," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    10. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2018 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum überschreitet Normalauslastung," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2019. "Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1994-2025, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contribution demand categories; GDP growth; imports; C67; O40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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