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Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2018 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum überschreitet Normalauslastung

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Wirtschaft im Euroraum hat Tritt gefasst und expandiert lebhaft. Einen zusätzlichen Schub erhielt die Konjunktur seit Ende des Jahres 2016 von der Belebung des weltwirtschaftlichen Umfelds. Frühindikatoren deuten auf eine Fortsetzung der kräftigen Expansion hin, wobei die Konjunktur weiter durch niedrige Zinsen und eine leicht expansive Finanzpolitik unterstützt wird. Im laufenden Jahr dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 2,4 Prozent expandieren, im kommenden Jahr wird sich die Expansionsrate wohl nur leicht auf 2,1 Prozent verringern. Potenzialschätzungen für den Euroraum deuten inzwischen darauf hin, dass die Normalauslastung der Produktionskapazitäten bereits überschritten ist. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist weiter rückläufig, und in einzelnen Ländern dürfte es zunehmende Anspannungen am Arbeitsmarkt geben. Angesichts der guten Konjunktur wird auch die Verbraucherpreisinflation allmählich anziehen und im Jahr 2019 bei 1,6 Prozent liegen, womit sie sich langsam dem Zielbereich der Europäischen Zentralbank annähert.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2018 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum überschreitet Normalauslastung," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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